胶价总体延续弱势，盘面或将震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires is negative for rubber, while supply has support, terminal demand is fair, and inventory has slightly decreased [8][87] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,530 to 15,115 yuan/ton, with a slight overall decline. As of May 23, 2025, it closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, down 370 points or 2.48% for the week [6][12] 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of May 23, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,350 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of May 23, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton wider than last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared to last week [27][31] 3.2 Important Market Information - The US manufacturing PMI in May rose to a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI reached a two - month high. The new order growth rate was the fastest in more than a year, but manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, and his tax - cut bill passed the House and will go to the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade, cut at least 1.5 trillion US dollars in spending, and raise the US debt ceiling by 4 trillion US dollars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [32] - The Australian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, but the service PMI fell sharply. The market increased bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year. The UK's CPI rose in April, and the market reduced bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates. The Indonesian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% [33][35] - China's economy grew steadily in April. The industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail all increased year - on - year. The LPR was lowered, and banks cut deposit interest rates. The prices of new houses in first - and second - tier cities were flat in April, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly. China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year in April, and the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in May are expected to increase [36][37] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in Indonesia's main rubber - producing areas increased slightly from the previous month, while that in Vietnam decreased slightly. The production in Malaysia and India decreased significantly, and that in Thailand decreased sharply. China's main producing areas started tapping gradually. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [48][51][54] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of May 22, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.22%, down 0.11% from last week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.96%, down 0.13% from last week [57] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%. The monthly sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 87,667 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [61][64][69] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [72][78] 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,270 tons, 230 tons less than last week. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons or 0.96%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons [85] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Recently, rainfall has affected tapping work, leading to firm raw material prices and cost support for rubber prices. In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [86] - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises slightly declined. Finished product inventories continued to accumulate and were at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales increased slightly year - on - year in April but decreased slightly month - on - month. The heavy - duty truck sales increased year - on - year in April but decreased month - on - month, and the cumulative sales from January to April decreased slightly year - on - year. The trade - in policy boosted terminal consumption. China's automobile and rubber tire exports increased in 2025 [86] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [86] 3.7后市展望 - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in main producing areas, tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import situation, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][87] 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate weakly this week. It is recommended to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly on dips, paying attention to the support around the 14,000 integer mark [10][88]