碳酸锂周度报告：供应零星扰动，碳酸锂小幅冲高回落-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From May 19th to May 23rd, there were minor supply disruptions, and lithium carbonate prices rose slightly before falling back. As of May 23rd, the closing price of the main contract was 60,960 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 63,050 yuan/ton. Besides the lower cost, there were no more pessimistic changes in the fundamentals. The further decline in the price of spodumene ore has lowered the cost support for lithium prices. The spot price has hit a new low since the futures were listed, and market sentiment remains pessimistic, but it is expected to stop falling as the raw material prices stabilize. Domestic social inventory has decreased slightly, and weekly production has declined. The continuous decline in prices increases the possibility of upstream enterprises reducing or suspending production, which needs continuous attention in the near future [2][10]. - The previous reciprocal tariffs have further restricted the future demand for lithium carbonate products. When facing the weakening peak - season effect of new - energy vehicles, the slowdown in the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate orders, and the decline in the production of ternary materials in China, the impact of reciprocal tariffs on lithium carbonate products is not obvious. The demand for lithium carbonate from the product end is more reflected in the growth of energy - storage demand and the demand brought about by breakthroughs in all - solid - state technology. Short - term factors affecting lithium carbonate prices still focus on the supply - and - demand changes in its own fundamentals. The possibility of further decline at the current price level is narrowing, and it should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [2][10]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review - Supply had sporadic disruptions, and lithium carbonate prices rose slightly before falling back. From May 19th to May 23rd, the upstream had minor disturbances with a small volume involved. As of May 23rd, the main contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 63,050 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and weekly production declined [2][8][10]. II. Hot - Spot Interpretation - April Import and Export Data (Spodumene, Lithium Iron Phosphate): In April, domestic spodumene imports totaled 623,000 physical tons, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, equivalent to 54,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe were the main import sources. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month; from Zimbabwe was 106,000 tons, an 82% increase; from Nigeria was 89,000 tons, a 4% increase; and from South Africa was 40,400 tons, a significant 22% decrease. In April, the amount of spodumene concentrate was 520,000 tons, accounting for 83% of the total ore, mostly from Australia, Zimbabwe, etc. In April 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate export volume was 1,151.7 tons, a 16% decrease from March and a 1724% increase compared to the previous year. In terms of price, the average export price of lithium iron phosphate in March 2025 was 6,206.9 US dollars/ton, a 5.4% increase from the average price in March. The top - exporting province of lithium iron phosphate in April 2025 was Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region with 968.5 tons, all exported to Vietnam; Hubei Province ranked second with 59.454 tons, and Anhui Province ranked third with 30 tons. The top - importing country of Chinese lithium iron phosphate in April 2025 was Vietnam, accounting for 84% of the export volume; South Korea ranked second with 7%, and Chinese Taipei ranked third with 5.5%. In April, China's lithium iron phosphate import volume was 8.6 tons, a 58% decrease from the previous month, mainly imported from Indonesia at an average import price of 5,345.6 US dollars/ton [17][18]. - SMM May 22nd News: This week, the price of ternary materials continued to decline. In terms of raw material costs, the prices of nickel sulfate and manganese sulfate fluctuated little, the price of cobalt sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of lithium salt continued to decline significantly. In terms of demand, the large - power market has recovered to some extent, with some vehicle models having good sales performance, and some models stocking up in advance due to upcoming launches, which provided some support for the demand for ternary materials, but the overall quantity was limited. The consumer and small - power markets have received more orders recently, especially the overseas market, but the overall increase was not obvious due to the small market volume. On the supply side, the current market supply mainly depends on previously signed long - term contracts. Some enterprises have raised relevant discount coefficients and adopted a settlement method of negotiating discounts for raw materials such as nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and lithium carbonate separately. Recently, the market trading sentiment has been weak, mainly for just - in - time inventory. However, the end - of - month inventory peak is coming next week, and it is expected that market activity will increase recently. In terms of price trends, it is expected that the price of nickel sulfate will remain firm, but there is still room for the price of lithium salt to decline. Affected by raw - material price fluctuations, the price of ternary materials may decline further [20]. - SMM May 22nd News: This week, the price of lithium ore continued to decline compared to last week. On the supply side, although overseas mines have a certain willingness to support prices, due to their shipping pressure, the quotes have been lowered. On the demand side, since the current lithium - salt price is at a low level, the buyers' psychological price is constantly decreasing, and they are not willing to accept lithium - ore prices above 650 US dollars CIF. When the current lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are falling, the demand continues to push down the price for negotiation, and the trading willingness is average. According to the latest lithium - ore import customs data, in April, domestic spodumene imports exceeded 600,000 tons, a significant increase from the previous month, equivalent to more than 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. Coupled with the high port inventory in recent months, traders and mines face certain shipping pressure, and the buyers' bargaining power has increased. When the lithium carbonate price remains low, the lithium - ore price is expected to weaken [22]. - SMM May 22nd News: This week, the power - cell market continued to operate in a stable and adjusted manner. In terms of price, the quoted price range of mainstream lithium - iron - phosphate power cells fluctuated narrowly, and market transactions were mostly concentrated in the long - term contracts of leading cell manufacturers. The price competition among terminal vehicle enterprises continued in mid - May, especially for pure - electric platforms of Class A and below, with a deep exploration around the vehicle selling price, which put forward higher requirements for the upstream BOM cost. In this context, power - cell manufacturers are gradually optimizing their product strategies. While maintaining the stable supply of basic large - capacity lithium - iron products, they are accelerating the launch of differentiated solutions for niche markets, such as low - cost and high - integration modules and a new generation of lithium - iron cells compatible with the CTP structure. Some ternary - cell manufacturers are also improving product cost - effectiveness through high - voltage iron doping and fast - charging system technology and promoting the matching of customized cells represented by the 9 - series in the core - customer testing stage [25]. - SMM May 22nd News: This week, the downward trend of lithium iron phosphate prices has slowed down, with an overall decrease of about 365 yuan/ton, mainly because the lithium carbonate price has continued to decline this week, with a total decrease of about 1,450 yuan/ton. In the market, material manufacturers have been more active in production this week, and the production of leading material manufacturers has begun to recover, but the production of some second - tier material manufacturers has declined, mainly due to the adjustment of the downstream cell supply - chain structure and a slight decline in downstream power orders. On the demand side, energy - storage demand continues to improve. On the one hand, the US has lowered tariffs on China, and downstream cell manufacturers are eager to rush for exports, resulting in a slight increase in orders. In terms of price settlement, the average price of lithium iron phosphate showed a slight upward trend in April as a whole. Some lithium - iron - phosphate manufacturers hoped to increase the processing fee in the second quarter, but there was no substantial result after negotiations with downstream cell manufacturers. However, at present, the price of lithium - iron raw materials has started to decline, so the price of lithium iron in May is also expected to decline to some extent. In addition, some cell manufacturers will restart bidding in June, and the probability of a price increase before then is low. Considering these two points, SMM expects that the second - quarter processing fee will be difficult to increase [27]. III. In - depth Analysis of Industrial - Chain Data - Lithium - Ore Price: The report provides the price trends of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) and lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2%) through charts, including data such as price changes, increases and decreases, and average prices [32]. - Lithium - Carbonate Price: The report shows the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate through charts, including data such as price changes, increases and decreases, and average prices [35]. - Processing Cost and Cash Production Cost: The report presents the processing costs of lithium carbonate from lithium - mica concentrate and spodumene concentrate and the cash production costs of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and purchased lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) through charts [38]. - Lithium - Carbonate Profit: The report shows the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and purchased lithium - mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical arbitrage profit of lithium carbonate, including theoretical delivery profit, import profit, export profit of lithium hydroxide, and theoretical delivery profit of lithium - carbonate production from lithium - mica ore and spodumene ore through charts [41]. - Lithium - Carbonate Weekly Operation and Production: The report provides the weekly operation rates of lithium - carbonate production from spodumene, lithium - mica, and salt lakes, as well as the weekly production of lithium carbonate from different smelting methods and the total weekly production of lithium carbonate in China through charts [44]. - Cell Shipment and Battery Inventory: The report shows the monthly shipment volume of power cells (including lithium - iron - phosphate, ternary, and total) and the inventory of lithium batteries (including energy - storage batteries and power batteries) through charts [47]. - Automobile Production and Sales: The report presents the production volume of new - energy vehicles (including pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and total) and the sales volume and proportion of new - energy vehicles through charts [50]. - Lithium - Carbonate Inventory: The report shows the monthly and weekly inventory of lithium carbonate (including total, downstream, smelter, and other inventories) through charts [53].