股指周报：市场震荡格局生变，弱势特征初现-20250526

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3846.2 points, up 37.4 points or 0.01% from the previous week; IH2506 closed at 2693.0 points, down 2.2 points or 0.08%; IC2506 closed at 5561.8 points, down 40.0 points or 0.71%; IM2506 closed at 5872.0 points, down 61.8 points or 1.04% [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.50%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period [6] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of May 25, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.53 times, the quantile was 65.1%, and the PB was 1.76 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.55 times, the quantile was 52.55%, and the PB was 1.31 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, the quantile was 73.9%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.04 times, the quantile was 55.49%, and the PB was 2.03 times [8] 4. Other Data - The equity - bond spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas: one is (1/Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield; the other is 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] 5. Core View - The A - share market's oscillation pattern has changed, showing weak characteristics. The market turnover has decreased, and sector rotation is frequent without sustainability. It is expected that the A - share market may shift from oscillation to weak oscillation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes may underperform the SSE 50 and SSE 300 Indexes. Investors are advised to be cautious, closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy trends, and external market fluctuations. They can consider lightly short - selling the CSI 1000 Index with the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point or selling small - cap stock indexes and buying large - cap stock indexes for arbitrage [20]