能源化工周报：油价宽幅波动，化工震荡走弱-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price fluctuates widely due to the intersection of production increase and geopolitical factors, and the chemical industry shows a weakening trend in a volatile manner [1]. - The international crude oil supply - demand is likely to become looser in the medium - to - long - term, and the short - term oil price is bearish. The polyester downstream has improved significantly, with PTA showing a slightly stronger trend in a volatile manner and ethylene glycol slightly strengthening. The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. The LPG price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner in the short term. The BR price is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the medium - to - long - term. The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. The container shipping index for European routes is recommended for short - term observation [7][10][11][12][13][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint Strategy Summary - Price Monitoring: The report provides the closing price monitoring data of various energy and chemical products, including the current value, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, and weekly price trends of products such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, various types of crude oil, natural rubber, and chemical products [6]. - Investment and Trading Views: Different investment and trading views are given for various energy and chemical products. For example, the short - term view on crude oil is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. For natural rubber, the short - term view is bearish, with a suggestion to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading [7][9]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) - Influencing Factors: - Supply: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. OPEC+ members are discussing further production increases, and Kazakhstan may exceed its production plan [8][21]. - Demand: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to global crude oil demand forecasts, with a general trend of weakening [8][21]. - Inventory: The US EIA crude oil inventory and related product inventories have different changes, with the commercial inventory increasing and the Cushing inventory decreasing [8][21][106]. - Policy and Geopolitics: OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear negotiations and Israeli threats to attack Iranian nuclear facilities all affect the oil price [8][21]. - Market Performance: The oil price fluctuates widely. As of May 23, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil all show a downward trend on a weekly basis [24]. - Investment and Trading Views: The short - term oil price is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include OPEC+ production cut policy changes, Middle East geopolitical situation disturbances, and US policy uncertainties [8][21]. 3.3 Natural Rubber (RU&NR) - Influencing Factors: - Supply: The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather and other factors. The raw material acquisition price in Yunnan maintains a high - level shock, and the raw material output in Hainan increases but is still lower than last year's level. In Thailand, the new rubber output is low at the beginning of the tapping season, and in Vietnam, the fresh rubber supply is restricted by rainfall [9]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises shows a mixed trend, and most enterprises have general sales and inventory pressure, with a potential decrease in the capacity utilization rate next week [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts of RU and 20 - number rubber have also decreased [9]. - Other Factors: The profit, basis, spread, and macro - policy all have an impact on the rubber price [9]. - Investment and Trading Views: The short - term view is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include production area weather disturbances, reserve policy changes, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [9]. 3.4 Polyester (TA&EG&PF) - Influencing Factors: - Supply: The spread between PX and naphtha and MX has increased, prompting some PX producers to seek MX supplies, and the net profit of the reforming unit has recovered [10]. - Demand: The downstream load of polyester has recovered, the polyester load remains at a high level of 94%, and the polyester inventory has been significantly reduced [10]. - Inventory: The port inventory of PTA has declined, and PTA has entered a de - stocking cycle [10]. - Other Factors: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all affect the market [10]. - Investment and Trading Views: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [10]. 3.5 Styrene (EB) - Influencing Factors: - Supply: The Asian styrene price has rebounded, and the domestic device load is gradually recovering [11]. - Demand: The EPS start - up rate has rebounded, the PS start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the start - up rates of acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports has decreased [11]. - Other Factors: The basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policy all have an impact on the styrene market [11]. - Investment and Trading Views: The styrene cost is expected to collapse and trend weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and key factors to monitor include geopolitical risks [11]. 3.6 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Influencing Factors: - Supply: The domestic LPG production and arrival volume have different changes, and some refineries have production adjustments, which may lead to an increase in domestic supply [12]. - Demand: The combustion demand is in a seasonal off - peak, the profit of olefin deep - processing is weak, and the propane chemical demand has increased but the downstream demand is in a seasonal off - peak [12]. - Inventory: The refinery inventory pressure has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate [12]. - Other Factors: The basis, position, downstream profit, valuation, and geopolitical and macro - factors all affect the LPG market [12]. - Investment and Trading Views: The short - term view is bearish in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the weakening of the inter - month spread and the narrowing of the PDH profit in the off - peak season for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include Sino - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and downstream demand changes [12]. 3.7 Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Influencing Factors: - Supply: The domestic butadiene production has decreased slightly, and the production of butadiene rubber may continue to decrease due to losses and device maintenance [13]. - Demand: The demand for both all - steel and semi - steel tires is weak [13]. - Inventory: The butadiene port inventory has decreased, while the butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventory has increased [13]. - Other Factors: The basis, spread, profit, and macro - geopolitical factors all affect the BR market [13]. - Investment and Trading Views: The short - term BR price is relatively stable, but it is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to consider a long - BR and short - NR/RU strategy for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [13]. 3.8 Caustic Soda (SH) There is no detailed information provided for caustic soda in the given content. 3.9 PVC (V) There is no detailed analysis information provided for PVC in the given content. 3.10 Asphalt (BU) - Influencing Factors: - Supply: The domestic asphalt production plan in May shows different trends in different regions, and the import situation is also affected by various factors such as price and demand [16]. - Demand: The demand in the north is gradually released, while the demand in the south is limited due to the rainy season and capital issues [16]. - Inventory: The refinery inventory is accumulating, while the social inventory in most regions is decreasing [16]. - Cost and Profit: The crude oil market is affected by multiple factors, and the asphalt processing profit is relatively stable [16]. - Investment and Trading Views: The asphalt fundamentals are better than those of crude oil, and it is more resistant to decline and has lower volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the cracking spread for arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and Trump's policies [16]. 3.11 Container Shipping Index for European Routes (EC) - Influencing Factors: - Spot Freight Rate: The May spot freight rate has declined slightly, and shipping companies are trying to increase the June freight rate [18]. - Politics: Events such as the US - Israel - Hamas negotiation, the Antwerp port strike, and the resurgence of the Red Sea crisis affect the market [18]. - Capacity Supply: The long - term capacity delivery is at a historical high, and the short - term capacity supply is gradually increasing [18]. - Demand: The cargo volume on the US route has increased, and the cargo volume on the European route is in a seasonal recovery stage [18]. - Investment and Trading Views: It is recommended for short - term observation. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [18].