黑色金属数据日报-20250526

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The steel industry may shift to a structure of weak supply and demand, with cost weakening and strong over - supply expectations. Consider rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sales. [4] - For coking coal and coke, the industry's off - season is being realized. Maintain a high - shorting idea, but early short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks. [5] - Silicon iron's rebound due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate without new large - scale production cut expectations. [7] - Iron ore is in a stage of accumulating off - season contradictions and will experience small - scale oscillations. [8] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - On May 23, far - month and near - month contracts of various black metals generally declined. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar fell 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), and the RB2510 contract fell 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%). [2] - The cross - month spreads, spreads/parities/profits, and basis of different varieties also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 increased by 7 yuan/ton. [2] Steel - Weekend spot prices dropped slightly, and trading was weak. The current supply - demand structure seems healthy, but there are strong over - supply expectations. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse the industry trend, but there is no clear information. [4] - Suggestions include unilateral waiting and using hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in hedging and open - position management. [9] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. The coking coal auction had more failed bids, and the coal price decreased. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price was 1280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/week - on - week). [5] - Futures prices also fell. The black chain index continued to decline and hit new lows. The weighted price of coking coal decreased by 6.03% week - on - week. [5] - Unilateral high - shorting is recommended, and early short positions can be appropriately closed. [5][9] Ferrous Alloys - Silicon iron and manganese silicon large - scale producers had significant production cuts this week. Silicon iron's spot resources in the Ningxia region were tight, while manganese silicon had no new large - scale production cut expectations after profit repair. [7] - Cost is expected to decline slightly. Silicon iron's spot tightness may lead to a continued rebound, and manganese silicon is expected to oscillate. [7] - It is recommended to hold previous long positions in silicon iron and long - short spreads of ferrous alloys. [7] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual production - rush stages, and port inventories may shift from slight destocking to slight stocking. [8] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate slightly. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and short at high prices. [8][9]