大财政时代，当海外超长债不再“安全”

Group 1: U.S. Long-term Bond Yield Trends - U.S. 30-year bond yield rose to around 5.1%, while 30-year Japanese bond yield exceeded 3.2%[1] - From May 1-9, the rise in U.S. bond yields was primarily driven by a cooling of rate cut expectations, which dropped from 100 basis points (bp) to 74bp after the non-farm payroll data on May 2[1] - By May 14, the rise in long-term bond yields was mainly attributed to term premium, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield increasing by 36bp, of which 22bp was due to neutral rate and 14bp to term premium[2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The widening spread between 30-year and 10-year U.S. bonds indicates rising skepticism towards the U.S. dollar system, with the spread reaching 53bp on May 23, up from an average of 25.8bp in Q1[3] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability were heightened by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing rising deficits and interest costs[3] - Foreign investors are increasingly worried about the implications of a weaker dollar, leading to a shift from U.S. dollar assets to gold, which rose by 3.8% from May 12 to May 23[4] Group 3: International Bond Market Dynamics - Japanese long-term bond yields are rising due to domestic investor pessimism and expectations of fiscal stimulus in response to U.S. tariffs, with 30-year Japanese bond yields increasing from 2.71% to 3.18%[8] - The rise in yields for German and Japanese long-term bonds is not providing a safe alternative to U.S. long-term bonds, as they are following the upward trend of U.S. yields[6] - The overall sentiment reflects a broader concern regarding the sustainability of developed economies' debt systems, with investors demanding higher term premiums for long-term bonds[9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The expectation of U.S. long-term bond yields continuing to rise is supported by the market's current rate cut expectations being around 50bp, with potential for further increases of about 25bp[10] - The potential for foreign investor sell-offs remains, as concerns over a weaker dollar may lead to reduced exposure to U.S. bonds in favor of domestic or emerging market assets[10] - If the 10-year U.S. bond yield approaches 5% or higher, it may present a buying opportunity for dollar-holding investors, given the implied short-term rate expectations[11]