Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Crude Oil: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - Asphalt: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - Natural Gas: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - PX: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - PTA: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - Ethylene Glycol: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - Short Fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - PET Bottle Chip: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - Styrene: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - Plastic PP: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - Soda Ash: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - Glass: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - Urea: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - Methanol: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - Log: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - Double - offset Paper: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - Corrugated Paper: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - Pulp: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - Butadiene Rubber: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - Related News: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - Logic Analysis: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - Related News: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - Logic Analysis: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - Trading Strategy: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Market Review: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - Related News: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - Logic Analysis: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - Trading Strategy: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - Related News: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - Related News: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - Logic Analysis: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - Related News: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - Logic Analysis: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - Trading Strategy: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - Related News: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - Trading Strategy: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - Related News: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - Trading Strategy: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - Related News: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - Logic Analysis: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - Trading Strategy: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - Related News: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - Logic Analysis: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - Trading Strategy: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - Related News: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - Trading Strategy: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - Related News: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - Logic Analysis: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - Related News: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - Logic Analysis: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - Trading Strategy: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - Related News: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - Logic Analysis: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - Trading Strategy: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - Market Review: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - Related News: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - Logic Analysis: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - Trading Strategy: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - Market Review: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - Related News: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - Logic Analysis: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - Related News: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - Logic Analysis: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - Trading Strategy: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - Market Review: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - Related News: Log arrival volume changes [42] - Logic Analysis: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - Trading Strategy: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - Market Review: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - Related News: Market order and price change situation [44] - Logic Analysis: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - Trading Strategy: Not provided Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - Related News: Market price and demand situation [45] - Logic Analysis: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - Trading Strategy: Not provided Pulp - Market Review: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - Related News: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - Logic Analysis: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - Trading Strategy: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5SP2509 - 2RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - Related News: Styrene market situation [50] - Logic Analysis: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - Market Review: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - Related News: Thai rubber import policy [54] - Logic Analysis: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250526
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-05-26 07:25