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煤炭月度供需数据点评:供应端改善,静待需求恢复-20250526
Shanxi Securities·2025-05-26 07:19

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize with the Market" rating for the coal industry [1][5][42] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply growth rate has slowed down, with a cumulative production of 1.585 billion tons from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, but the growth rate is declining [3][13] - Demand is supported by infrastructure investment, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.0% year-on-year in the same period, while the real estate sector continues to show negative growth [4][17] - Coal imports have shown a negative growth trend, with a cumulative import volume of 15.267 million tons from January to April 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year [24] - Coal prices, particularly for thermal and coking coal, have been under pressure, with prices for Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal decreasing since the beginning of 2025 [26][38] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The growth rate of raw coal supply has significantly decreased, with April's production at 389 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking a substantial decline from the previous month [3][13] Demand Side - The terminal demand from January to April 2025 is supported by infrastructure, with non-electric demand performing better than electric demand. The cumulative growth rate for thermal power is -4.1%, while coking coal and pig iron show positive growth [4][20] Import Coal - The coal import growth rate remains negative, with April's imports at 3.783 million tons, down 16.4% year-on-year [24] Price and Profit Performance - Coal prices have been under pressure, with the average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal decreasing since the start of 2025 [26][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business such as Xinjie Energy and Huahua Energy, as well as those with a large proportion like Shaanxi Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy [5][38]