有色及贵金属周报：宏观扰动再起，金属价格震荡运行-20250526

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic disturbances, including uncertainties surrounding Trump's tax reform and tariff threats, are expected to lead to fluctuations in metal prices. Domestic macroeconomic benefits may offset some overseas impacts, but attention should be paid to downstream demand feedback during the traditional off-season [3][6] - Gold prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating due to market sentiment and geopolitical tensions, while industrial metals are expected to experience price volatility influenced by macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Trump's tax reform has passed in the U.S. House Budget Committee, raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and increasing market risk aversion, leading to a rise in gold prices. However, uncertainties remain regarding the final implementation of the tax reform and tariff threats, resulting in expected price fluctuations for gold and industrial metals [4][6] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - As of May 23, the SW non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.25%, ranking 4th among all industries [11] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1 Industrial Metals - As of May 23, copper prices on SHFE decreased by 0.45% to 77,790 CNY/ton, while LME copper increased by 1.72% to 9,610 USD/ton. The overall inventory of copper decreased by 8.76% week-on-week [21][22][9] 3.2 Precious Metals - As of May 23, SHFE gold prices rose by 3.76% to 780.10 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold increased by 6.25% to 3,386.50 USD/ounce. The total gold inventory on COMEX decreased by 3.76 tons [24][25] 4. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. CPI and PPI, which are essential for understanding the broader economic context affecting metal prices [30][34] 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhongtung High-tech, all rated as "Overweight" [4][91]