银河期货每日早盘观察-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the soybean market is relatively loose, with high yields in Brazil and Argentina, and smooth progress in the new - crop planting of US soybeans. The domestic soybean market also faces inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, it is expected to show a short - term weak and volatile trend. The short - term trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile, and the corn market is expected to be stable in the short - term with strong support for futures. The pig market has short - term supply pressure, and the peanut market has limited rebound space. The egg supply is sufficient, and the apple market may be slightly weak in the short - term. The cotton market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][5][10][19][28][33][37][48][52][58] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - 外盘情况: CBOT soybean index rose 0.45% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.33% to $302.2 per short ton [2] - 相关资讯: Brazil's soybean production reached 169 million tons this year. The global rapeseed production may be about 800,000 - 900,000 tons less. Brazil launched a 28 - day avian influenza observation period. As of the week of May 23, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2093 million tons, the开机率 was 62.1%, the soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week [2] - 逻辑分析: The overall supply of the soybean market is relatively loose, and the domestic oil mills face inventory accumulation pressure [3][5] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, slightly allocate long positions; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 positive arbitrage and expand the MRM spread; for options, adopt the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [6] Sugar - 外盘情况: ICE US sugar fell 0.32 (1.81%) to 17.38 cents per pound [7] - 重要资讯: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose slightly, and the quotes of sugar - making groups in various regions decreased. The inventory in Guangxi's third - party warehouses increased year - on - year, and the destocking speed was the lowest in the same period of the past five years. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased, and there was import profit [8] - 逻辑分析: Brazil is about to enter the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [10] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, view it as weak and volatile; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12][13] Oil - 外盘情况: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by - 0.44% to 49.22 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.16% to 3827 ringgit per ton [15] - 相关资讯: Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.51%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 11.6% compared with the same period last month. Argentina's soybean planting area and output increased, and the soybean harvest rate was 77%. Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory was 966,700 tons [16][17][18] - 逻辑分析: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. The soybean oil inventory accumulation speed may slow down, and the rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, but the decline space may be limited [19] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and palm oil can be short - sold at the upper limit of the range; for arbitrage, consider expanding the YP 09 spread at low levels and going long on OI 91 at low levels; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - 外盘变化: CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 0.3% to 459.5 cents per bushel [24] - 重要资讯: CBOT corn futures rose last week due to slow spring sowing and good export sales. The temperature in the US corn - producing states is expected to be higher than normal, and the precipitation is expected to be lower than normal. The corn inventory of major processing enterprises increased slightly. The purchase price in the northern port and the price in the North China production area were stable [25][27] - 逻辑分析: The US corn report is stable, and the sowing speed is accelerating. The domestic corn supply is relatively small, and the spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract is in a low - level shock, and the basis difference is narrowing [28] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the 07 corn contract has support at around 440 cents per bushel, and long positions can be tried; for arbitrage, conduct shock operations on the corn and starch arbitrage and expand the spread at low levels; for options, those with spot can consider the strategy of accumulating put options at high prices [29][30] Pig - 相关资讯: The pig price showed a weak trend, and the prices of piglets and sows decreased slightly. The wholesale price of pork increased [32][33] - 逻辑分析: The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is still relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure still exists [33] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the market is mainly in a shock operation; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell wide - straddle options [34] Peanut - 重要资讯: The quotes of peanuts in various regions are relatively stable, and the arrivals and transaction prices of peanut oil mills vary. The price of peanut oil is relatively strong, and the sales of peanut meal are average. The peanut inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the peanut oil inventory decreased slightly [35][36] - 逻辑分析: The spot trading volume of peanuts is still small, the import volume has decreased significantly, the downstream consumption is still weak, but the large - scale oil mills' purchases have boosted the market. The 10 - contract peanut is short - term strong, but the rebound space is limited [37] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach for the 10 - contract peanut; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [38][39][40] Egg - 重要资讯: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased, and the price in the main sales areas also decreased. The inventory of laying hens increased, the egg - chick hatching volume increased, the slaughter volume of laying hens increased, the egg sales volume increased, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased, and the egg - raising profit increased [43][44][45] - 交易逻辑: The overall egg supply is still sufficient, and it is recommended to close the previous short positions and wait and see [48] - 交易策略: No specific strategies provided in the text Apple - 重要资讯: The apple inventory in cold storage decreased, the export volume increased, the import volume increased significantly, the market destocking speed slowed down, the terminal demand decreased slightly, the new - season apple is entering the bagging stage, and the precipitation in the western region has alleviated the drought to some extent. The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term, and the storage profit has increased [49][50][51] - 交易逻辑: The apple market is in the peak of weather - related trading. The market may revise the previous pessimistic expectations, and the spot market sales have slowed down, but the low inventory has a certain supporting effect on the price [52] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, short positions can consider closing the positions and waiting and seeing, and then build long positions at low levels for the AP10 contract; for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short the 09 contract; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [50][53] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - 外盘影响: ICE US cotton rose 0.39 (0.59%) to 66.06 cents per pound [54] - 重要资讯: As of May 18, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought in the US main production areas has been alleviated. The weekly signing volume of US upland cotton increased, and the weekly shipping volume decreased. The number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton decreased [55][56][57] - 交易逻辑: The market fundamentals change little, and the Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the influence of the macro - level [58] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile trend, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger in a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [59][60]