国贸期货黑色金属周报-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is gradually shifting to a narrative structure of "weak supply and demand", with the industrial off - season gradually materializing. The overall trading logic is that after the supply of furnace materials becomes abundant, the upstream continuously transfers profits downstream, and the loosening of costs causes the valuation center of the entire sector to gradually move downward [3][35]. - For different sub - industries in the black metal sector: - Rebar: It is recommended to wait and see. The industry is in a state of "weak supply and demand", with supply having a downward trend, demand temporarily stable but with potential risks, and inventory showing seasonal destocking [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - selling idea remains. The off - season pressure is gradually emerging, and the long - position abandonment of near - month contracts has led to price drops [35]. - Iron Ore: It is expected to fluctuate. Supply and demand are both in a relatively neutral state, with some positive factors in cross - month spreads [80]. - Ferroalloys: It is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon in Yunnan is expected to resume production during the wet season, while the production of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - Supply: Bearish. The daily average pig iron output has continued to decline slightly, and it is expected to continue this trend. The trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met, so the pace of production cuts will be slow. The raw material cost is expected to become more abundant, and the support from the raw material side may be absent [7]. - Demand: Neutral. There is no significant weakening in demand for now, as inventory can still be reasonably destocked and exports remain high. However, market expectations are poor, and the cost - side valuation is constantly collapsing [7]. - Inventory: Bullish. Seasonal destocking can still be maintained, the total inventory level is low, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7]. - Basis/Spread: Bullish. The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures are at a discount. As of Friday, the rb2505 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 64, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week [7]. - Profit: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low - level range, but the long - process production of steel mills still has profits [7]. - Valuation: Neutral. There are meager profits in the industrial chain production links, with relatively low relative valuation and still room for compression in absolute valuation [7]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Recent macro - economic benefits have had limited impact on the black metal sector, and the weak industrial narrative remains the main pricing driver [7]. - Investment View: Wait and see. Considering the uncertainty of trade wars and the lack of clear administrative production - restriction information, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and exposure management and appropriately rotate inventory; for arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is high; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive spot - futures arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: Bearish. The pressure of the off - season is gradually materializing, with the apparent demand for five major steel products decreasing and pig iron output slightly declining. Many steel mills are choosing to conduct timely maintenance as the off - season approaches [35][48]. - Coking Coal Supply: Bearish. Coal mines are facing increased shipment pressure, with prices continuously falling. The domestic - foreign price difference remains large, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [35][55]. - Coke Supply: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, with the daily average output increasing slightly. Although coking profits have declined, the decline in the cost of coking coal has not affected coke supply, and there is still an expectation of a second - round price cut [35][56]. - Inventory: Bearish. Downstream buyers are controlling the receipt of goods, while upstream producers are facing increased shipment pressure and passive inventory accumulation. The market expectation of a second - round price cut is strengthening [35][59]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The first - round price cut for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round cut. The warehouse - receipt costs for different scenarios have been calculated [35]. - Profit: Neutral. Steel mill profitability is still good, while coking profits have declined, but the decline in coking coal costs has not affected coke supply [35]. - Summary: Bearish. The black chain index continues to decline, hitting new lows. The short - selling idea remains for single - side trading, but previous short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks [35]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, appropriately close previous short positions and maintain a high - level short - selling idea later; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage between the JM9 and JM1 contracts [35]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: Neutral. Iron ore shipments have shown a seasonal rebound and are currently stable. The overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential significant increase in shipments in May and June due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rushes of some mines [80]. - Demand: Neutral. The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline but remains at a high level. It is expected that the demand in May will not decline significantly, and port inventories will experience a slight destocking [80]. - Inventory: Neutral. With stable arrivals in May and stable pig iron output, port inventories will experience stable and slight destocking [80]. - Profit: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still good, so pig iron output can remain at a high level in the short term [80]. - Valuation: Neutral. With pig iron output at a high level, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [80]. - Cross - Month Spread: Bullish. Near - month contracts have high demand due to high pig iron output, while far - month contracts are affected by the expectation of flat steel production control and face greater supply pressure. The valuation of the 9 - 1 spread has a large upward space [80]. - Macro and Policy: Bearish. Without considering production - restriction factors, the furnace material sector has no new stories in May, and iron ore is in a weak - fluctuating state. After May, if the fundamentals of steel weaken, steel mills' spontaneous production cuts are needed, and the contraction of steel mill profits is a necessary condition [80]. - Investment View: Fluctuation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate [80]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider short - selling when the price is above $100; for arbitrage, continue to hold the remaining positions of the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [80]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - Supply: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. There are few production - cut news for manganese silicon this week, and it is expected to resume production in Yunnan during the wet season next month. Ferrosilicon production is at a very low level, and due to poor profits, production is likely to further decline [123]. - Demand: Bullish. Pig iron output has slightly declined, but steel mills still have good profits [123]. - Inventory: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. The warehouse receipts and factory inventories of manganese silicon have decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. The warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon have decreased, and the factory inventory has rebounded [123]. - Basis/Spread: Bullish. The basis of manganese silicon has significantly declined and then strengthened, with near - month contracts showing strong performance. The basis of ferrosilicon has declined and then strengthened, and the near - month contracts have changed from strong to weak [123]. - Cost: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. For manganese silicon, the short - term price increase on Thursday was mainly due to capital behavior, and the supply of Australian ore from South32 is expected to increase, leading to an oversupply of manganese ore in the long - term. Recently, the price of coking coal has dropped significantly, and there may be a round of price cuts for metallurgical coke. For ferrosilicon, the price of semi - coke small materials has decreased by 30 yuan/ton this week, but the settlement electricity price in Ningxia may increase slightly next month [123]. - Valuation: Low. The valuation of ferroalloys is at a relatively low level [123]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. It is currently a macro - vacuum period [123]. - Investment View: Fluctuation. The price of manganese silicon may continue to be under pressure due to the expected resumption of production in Yunnan, while the price of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits, and it is considered to be in the bottom - range [123]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, hold long positions in ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, conduct cross - month positive arbitrage [123].