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中泰期货烧碱周报:液碱现货价格持续走强,烧碱期货价格背离现货价格走势-20250526
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-26 07:29
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of caustic soda is strong, the price of liquid chlorine is weak, and the futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot. It is expected that the futures price of caustic soda will strengthen on a month - on - month basis [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Chlor - alkali Overview - Supply: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. It is expected to reach about 86.1% this week, with a weekly output of about 834,900 tons [7]. - Demand: In the alumina industry, prices have been rising, and enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle. The short - fiber viscose industry's start - up rate remains stable, but the overall supply has declined. The printing and dyeing industry's comprehensive start - up rate is flat, and the export volume of liquid caustic soda in April was 335,800 tons, and that of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [7]. - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above decreased by 3.59% month - on - month and 2.25% year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.74% month - on - month [7]. - Profit: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, the price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali decreased to 428 yuan/ton [7]. - Valuation: The SH7 - 9 spread is maintained in the range of - 51 - 56, and the futures SH09 price is relatively strong. The futures price of caustic soda ignores the strong spot reality and focuses on the expected weakening of future demand. It is not recommended to carry out sell - hedging operations under the current basis [7]. 3.2 Chlor - alkali Prices - Spot Prices: The report presents historical price data of Shandong chlor - alkali, including the minimum ex - factory converted - to - 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda, the price of liquid chlorine, etc. [11] - Futures Prices: It shows the historical data of the main contract price of caustic soda, the spread between SH09 and SH01 contracts, and the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong [17]. - Other Prices: It also includes the prices of flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, raw salt, and coal [14][20][21] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Production and Inventory: The report shows the historical data of caustic soda production, liquid caustic soda inventory, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises [26]. - Maintenance Situation: It lists the maintenance and planned maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali enterprises in different regions [28]. 3.4 Chlor - alkali Demand - Alumina: It shows the historical data of Shandong alumina price, profit, and China's alumina production [32]. - Viscose Short - fiber and Printing and Dyeing: It presents the historical data of viscose short - fiber weekly output, factory inventory, price, and the start - up rate of East China's printing and dyeing industry [35]. - Paper Pulp and Paper - making: It shows the historical data of paper product output and the number of days of available inventory of upstream factory paper products [38]. - Export: It shows the historical data of China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and caustic soda [41]. - Epoxy Propane: It presents the historical data of Shandong epoxy propane price, profit, output, and start - up rate [44].