日度策略参考-20250526

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: None - Bearish: Copper, Polycrystalline Silicon, Pure Lithium, Jiao Coal, Coke, BR Rubber, Pure Benzene, LPG - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Japanese Yen, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Urea, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's reaction to tariff impacts and policy support is waning, and in the absence of new catalysts, there are short - term risks of market fluctuations and adjustments [1]. - Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Various factors such as weak macro data, changes in supply and demand, and policy uncertainties are affecting the prices of different commodities, with most commodities expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. Summary by Category Macro - financial - Stock Index: With the fading impact of tariffs and policy support, and the current rebound reaching the upper limit of the range, there is a short - term risk of oscillating adjustment in the absence of new catalysts [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. - Gold: The risk of US Treasury bonds has eased, and gold prices may enter a period of oscillation, but the long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Japanese Yen: It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, but the medium - term upward space is limited [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Weak macro data and reduced downstream demand limit the upward space of copper prices, with a short - term risk of decline [1]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Low aluminum inventories support prices, but the upward space is limited as prices rise. For alumina, although the price is rising due to mine disturbances, the improvement in production profits may lead to复产, restricting the upward space [1]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Global trade frictions and policy uncertainties cause prices to oscillate in the short - term. Long - term, the supply of primary nickel is excessive, and stainless steel has supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Before the resumption of production at low - grade mines, the fundamentals of tin prices are strongly supported [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply remains high, it has entered a low - valuation range, and demand remains low [1]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: Downstream production schedules are rapidly decreasing, futures premiums over spot prices, and warehouse receipts are increasing [1]. - Pure Lithium: Mine prices are continuously falling without signs of production cuts, and downstream buyers are not active [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The market is in a transition period from peak to off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns, and no clear upward price drivers [1]. - Iron Ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has reached its peak, but there are no new supply - side developments, and attention should be paid to steel pressure [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Manganese silicon has short - term supply - demand balance with high warehouse - receipt pressure; ferrosilicon's cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area have tightened supply - demand [1]. Building Materials - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about declining demand. Soda ash has good immediate demand due to many maintenance activities in May, but faces medium - term supply overcapacity and price pressure [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil: Palm oil is affected by factors such as Indonesian weather and US biodiesel proposals; soybean oil is affected by Argentine weather with limited impact; rapeseed oil is affected by potential tariff increases, but the impact has been mostly priced in [1]. - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and long - term macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - cane ratio and sugar production [1]. - Corn and Soybeans: Corn is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation in the medium - term, with short - term factors limiting the upward space of the futures price. Soybeans face pressure from concentrated arrivals and fast sowing progress, and low - valuation buying is recommended [1]. - Pulp and Logs: Pulp port inventories are rising, with some improvement in white - cardboard demand. Logs have a pattern of loose supply and weak demand, and both are expected to oscillate [1]. - Hogs: With the continuous restoration of hog inventories and increasing slaughter weights, the futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient supply, and the futures price is expected to remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, and Asphalt: Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and OPEC+ production - increase news. Asphalt is affected by cost drag, inventory changes, and slow demand recovery [1]. - Shanghai Rubber and BR Rubber: Shanghai rubber is affected by factors such as rainfall and storage - purchase rumors. BR rubber's short - term upward sentiment has slowed, and there is a risk of long - term decline [1]. - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, and Short Fiber: PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, ethylene glycol is in a de - stocking phase, and short - fiber costs are closely related to PTA [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The speculative demand for pure benzene has weakened, and styrene plants have increased production and are actively selling [1]. - Urea and Methanol: Urea demand is weak, and methanol is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention to factors such as plant maintenance and imports [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC: PE's seasonal demand is weakening, PP's production has recovered, and PVC has a weak fundamental situation but is supported by macro factors [1]. - Caustic Soda and LPG: Caustic soda is affected by the alumina market, and LPG is expected to decline due to factors such as tariff relaxation and the off - season [1]. Others - The market has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. For futures, it is recommended to try long - positions in the peak - season contracts with light positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [1]