华宝期货晨报铁矿石-20250526

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a complete vacuum, and the expectation of incremental policies is weak. The decline of carbon elements causes the cost support of finished products to collapse, and the overall valuation of the black series drags down the iron ore price. Iron ore trading focuses on strong reality in the short term. Although demand has basically peaked with a low decline slope, and supply continues to rise but may remain in year - on - year decline, it is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Last week, iron ore showed relative strength. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils retracted most of the gains from the rebound due to the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs on May 12, and coking coal and coke hit new lows. The decline in carbon element prices allowed blast furnace steel mills to avoid a significant profit compression. Under the strong pressure of Sino - US tariffs, domestic exporters rushed to export to hedge the decline in domestic demand. The 90 - day suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs strengthened the rush - to - export behavior to the US, and the market revised the expectation of export decline. Iron ore is in a pattern of high demand, high discount, and inventory reduction, showing relative strength [2]. Supply - Last week, the shipment of foreign iron ore rebounded significantly on a week - on - week basis, and the year - on - year decline in overall foreign ore shipments tended to narrow. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward shipment trend, with the marginal support of the supply side weakening [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has declined for two consecutive weeks, with this period at 243.6 (-1.77) and the decline rate expanding. Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the molten iron output will decline from a high level with a low downward slope, having a small short - term impact on prices [3]. Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in early June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to use range - bound operations and the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy. The price range of the i2509 contract is 715 - 745 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 97 - 101 US dollars/ton [3].