甲醇周报：基本面改善有限，甲醇或继续震荡-20250526

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market expectation for methanol has not improved, and methanol is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated downward. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,235 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week [11]. - In the spot market, the main trading logic shifted from the macro - level to the fundamental level. Due to the expected increase in supply, the market was under pressure. Although there was some support from downstream procurement and device startups, it was weak. As of May 22, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,334 yuan/ton, down 4.34%; in Guangdong, it was 2,356 yuan/ton, down 1.79%; in Ordos North Line, it was 2,069 yuan/ton, down 2.22%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,274 yuan/ton, down 1.81% [11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, there were more maintenance than restart operations in domestic methanol production. The production volume was 1,961,475 tons, a decrease of 29,580 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a 1.62% decrease [12]. - Demand: In the downstream, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region increased significantly. As of May 22, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 68.78%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid increased, while those of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased slightly [16][17]. - Inventory: As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 336,000 tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous period, and the pending orders were 235,200 tons, a 14.03% decrease. The port sample inventory was 490,400 tons, a 1.34% increase [21][29]. - Profit: Last week, the profits of domestic methanol sample production enterprises showed mixed trends but generally declined. For example, the average profit of coke - oven gas in Hebei was 273 yuan/ton, a 13.79% decrease; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 237.70 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease [30]. 3.3 Outlook for Methanol Trends - Supply: This week, there will be more restarts than maintenance in methanol production enterprises. It is expected that the production volume will be about 1.9674 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.30%, an increase from last week [34]. - Demand: The start - up of the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased, and methanol demand has improved. However, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products such as acetic acid and chlorides are expected to decline [37][38]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons, an increase from last week. The port inventory is also expected to continue to accumulate due to sufficient imports [38].