有色金属周报：关税扰动依旧，黄金持续看好-20250526

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to see a long-term bullish trend, with gold prices rising slightly by 1.27% during the week of May 19-23, 2025. Ongoing international trade issues, particularly threats of tariffs on EU products, contribute to a persistent uncertainty in global trade, which is likely to support gold prices [4]. - Industrial metal prices have generally declined, with significant drops in copper (-1.5%), aluminum (-0.6%), lead (-0.4%), zinc (-2.2%), tin (-0.4%), and nickel (-2.1%) due to tariff concerns affecting global demand [4]. - Small metals show mixed trends, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides declining, while tungsten concentrate prices are on the rise, driven by recovering manufacturing demand [4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, have seen price declines, with lithium carbonate prices down by 3.0% and 40.6% year-on-year. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices are forecasted to remain strong due to ongoing trade uncertainties and the weakening position of the US dollar [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report details the price changes for various industrial metals, highlighting a general downward trend influenced by tariff discussions [27]. 1.3 Small Metals - The report notes a decrease in prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides, while tungsten prices are increasing, indicating a potential growth in demand for tungsten in manufacturing [29][31]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium and cobalt prices are declining, with lithium carbonate prices down by 3.0% week-on-week and 40.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant market adjustment [34]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a 1.26% increase, contrasting with a 0.57% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a relative strength in the sector [35]. 3. Key Events of the Week - A significant event was President Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, 2025, which could impact the non-ferrous metals market [41].