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煤炭进口数据拆解:25年4月进口连续负增
山西证券·2025-05-26 08:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the coal industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal import data indicates a negative growth trend in imports for the first four months of 2025, with a cumulative import volume of 153 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.30%. In April alone, the import volume was 37.83 million tons, down 16.40% year-on-year and 2.32% month-on-month [12][14]. - The average import price for coal and lignite in the first four months of 2025 was recorded at 79perton,adecreaseof17.1779 per ton, a decrease of 17.17% compared to the same period last year [24]. - The structure of coal imports is shifting, with a significant reduction in the proportion of thermal coal and an increase in lignite imports, reflecting the impact of global uncertainties on the coal industry [43]. Summary by Sections Coal Import Volume Data Breakdown - The total coal and lignite import volume for January to April 2025 was 153 million tons, down 5.30% year-on-year. The April import volume was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.40% year-on-year and 2.32% month-on-month [12][14]. - Thermal coal imports saw a significant decline, with a total of 49.86 million tons imported in the first four months, down 20.00% year-on-year. In April, the import volume was 12.68 million tons, down 31.33% year-on-year [14]. - Coking coal imports also decreased, totaling 36.15 million tons in the first four months, a decline of 4.46% year-on-year [18]. - Lignite imports increased to 60.28 million tons, a growth of 6% year-on-year, although April saw a slight decrease [20]. - Anthracite imports surged to 6.09 million tons, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 42% [23]. Coal Import Price Data Breakdown - The average import price for coal and lignite in the first four months of 2025 was 79 per ton, down 17.17% from the previous year [24]. - The average price for thermal coal was 81perton,adecreaseof12.8081 per ton, a decrease of 12.80% year-on-year [29]. - Coking coal's average price was 114 per ton, down 24.53% year-on-year [33]. - Lignite's average price was 53perton,adeclineof12.5153 per ton, a decline of 12.51% year-on-year [36]. - Anthracite's average price was 119 per ton, down 10.75% year-on-year [38]. Commentary and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business such as Xinjie Energy, Haohua Energy, and Zhongmei Energy [44]. - Companies with a larger proportion of non-coal business, like Shaanxi Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy, are also highlighted as significantly undervalued [44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for high dividend yield stocks and stable high dividend stocks, recommending companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry for stable dividends, and Huaibei Mining and Pingmei Shenma for high dividend elasticity [44][45].