瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250526

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply - side: Primary lead smelters'开工率 and output declined due to unclear lead prices; recycled lead smelters cut开工率 due to losses and raw material constraints [2] - Demand - side: Market transactions were generally weak, providing limited support for lead prices [2] - Inventory: Overseas inventory increased, and demand was significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventory decreased slightly, but overseas prices restricted the upward space of domestic prices [2] - Processing fees: Lead concentrate processing fees remained low, affecting the resumption of recycled and primary lead production [2] - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to go short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 1,994 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars [2] - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead was 0 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Shanghai lead position was 73,292 lots, up 255 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,773 lots, up 665 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt was 32,950 tons, down 6,377 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 48,428 tons (weekly), down 7,044 tons; the LME lead inventory was 294,025 tons, down 1,800 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,675 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 17.65 dollars/ton, up 4.72 dollars [2] - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 15,945 yuan/ton, down 133 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,620 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [2] - The production enterprise number of recycled lead was 68 (monthly), up 3; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, down 1.87%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 million tons, down 6.75 million tons [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average开工率 of primary lead was 73.88% (weekly), down 0.78%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.43 million tons, down 0.02 million tons [2] - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 20 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons (monthly), up 48.8 thousand tons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 399.7 thousand tons (monthly), down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 720 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged [2] - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,066.07 yuan/ton, up 26.78 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,575 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other batteries was 1,645.4 points, down 21.49 points; the monthly automobile output was 304.46 million vehicles, down 45.4 million vehicles [2] - The monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 million vehicles, up 7.3 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump resumed a 90 - day trade negotiation window with the EU after von der Leyen contacted him. Trump previously proposed a 50% tariff on the EU from June 1st, and the EU Commission refused to comment until the EU trade commissioner talked with the US trade representative [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said the 50% tariff threat was a response to the EU's slow action. The US had made significant progress in trade negotiations with India and Asian countries and would announce more agreements in the next 90 days. The Trump administration suspended the plan to create a sovereign wealth fund [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru talked with Trump for 45 minutes, and Trump did not mention tariffs. Ishiba Shigeru reiterated the request to cancel tariffs, and Japan intended to reach a tariff agreement with the US before the G7 summit in June [2]