Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply - demand pattern of the pig industry is loose. The increase in the number of pigs sold by breeders and the fact that the increase in demand is less than the supply lead to a weak adjustment of pig prices. Although the slowdown in the end - of - month slaughter rhythm may limit the short - term decline, the fundamentals are bearish. After the adjustment of the futures price, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short sell [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 13,600 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 78,587 lots, down 1,898 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 700 lots, up 37 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,286 lots, up 268 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of live pigs in Henan, Jilin, and Guangdong are 14,500 yuan/ton, 14,100 yuan/ton, and 15,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 200 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton; the main basis of live pigs is 900 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly live pig inventory is 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of reproductive sows is 4.039 million heads, down 27,000 heads [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is - 0.1%, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn is 2,376.27 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 936.6, down 2.82; the monthly output of feed is 27.772 million tons, down 664,000 tons; the price of binary reproductive sows is 1,641 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 16.06 yuan/head, down 64.26 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 48.21 yuan/head, down 32.45 yuan/head; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.4 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 3.063 million heads, up 886,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total retail sales of consumer goods is 416.7 billion yuan, down 6.8 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the slaughtering enterprise operating rate in the 21st week is 28.55%, up 0.44 percentage points from last week and 0.77 percentage points year - on - year. In the supply side, the willingness of breeders and secondary fattening farmers to sell increased last week, the slaughter volume accelerated, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. The market supply increased, but the end - of - month slaughter rhythm may slow down, and the supply pressure may ease briefly. In the demand side, as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the pre - festival stocking has warmed up the terminal demand in some areas, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded [2].
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250526