Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-26 09:00Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Monday, the HC2510 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, multiple provinces have proposed stricter management of special bond funds, requiring public tender announcements and winning bid notices for new special bond issuance projects. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 63,000 tons this period, dropping for the second week, and the capacity utilization rate fell below 80%. Factory and social inventories both decreased, with a total inventory reduction of 73,800 tons and a表观 demand reduction of 164,700 tons. On the raw material side, the second round of price cuts for coke weakened cost support. Overall, the terminal demand for hot-rolled coils has strong resilience, but the black sector is weak, and there is a lack of confidence in the long term. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to trade with a bearish bias in a volatile market and pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan; the position volume was 1,471,007 lots, an increase of 102,723 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was 83,963 lots, an increase of 46,599 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was -6 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan. The HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 180,831 tons, a decrease of 19,267 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 102 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan; the price difference between Hangzhou hot-rolled coils and rebar was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 749 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 6 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,240 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.8783 million tons, a decrease of 1.7826 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 733,000 tons, an increase of 80,500 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.609 million tons, a decrease of 26,200 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 693,000 tons, a decrease of 52,100 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.67%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.3%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.0568 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils was 78.09%, a decrease of 1.60 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil factory inventory of sample steel mills was 769,200 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.6327 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 8.602 million tons, a decrease of 682,000 tons; the net steel export volume was 994,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a decrease of 387,100 vehicles; the automobile sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a decrease of 325,900 vehicles. The output of air conditioners was 30.833 million units, a decrease of 2.8789 million units; the output of household refrigerators was 8.179 million units, a decrease of 1.2045 million units; the output of household washing machines was 9.651 million units (data incomplete in the text) [2] Industry News - In mid-May, the daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 2.199 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month; the steel inventory was 16.35 million tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous ten-day period and a decrease of 2.1% from the same period last month. In the first half of this year, multiple provinces have proposed stricter management of special bond funds, requiring public tender announcements, winning bid notices, construction contracts, and state-owned land use certificates for new special bond issuance projects [2]