Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-26 08:55Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market price of polysilicon is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure. The downstream photovoltaic component production schedule has been reduced, the demand has weakened marginally, and the terminal market is in a wait - and - see state. There is also uncertainty in the overseas photovoltaic market, and polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Short - term short - long operations can be considered, while medium - and long - term high - short operations are recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 34,885 yuan/ton, down 1,205 yuan; the main contract position is 78,351 lots, up 3,922 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 1,105 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,275 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.29 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The basis of polysilicon is 410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 582,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, up 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is - 2,122,260 pieces, and the monthly average import price is 9,846.12 US dollars/piece, up 0.01 US dollars. The polysilicon sub - index of the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) is 22.29, down 0.62 [2] Industry News - The mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feeding polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are all temporarily stable. The Shanghai government has issued a consumption promotion plan. On the supply side, polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, but the expectation of new capacity release is increasing. On the demand side, the downstream is in a weak state [2] Viewpoint Summary - The polysilicon industry is facing challenges. Most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash costs, production enthusiasm is frustrated, and some enterprises have suspended the production line of delivery products. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is at a high level, suppressing the market price [2]