Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-26 09:17Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's forecast of increased US corn ending stocks in 2025/26 restricts market prices, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations raises concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, feed enterprises in the Northeast have low purchasing enthusiasm, trade grain moves slowly, and processing enterprises' operating rates are down. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, new wheat is about to be harvested, leading to more market circulation and price cuts by processing enterprises, and the proportion of wheat in feed is increasing [2]. - For the corn starch market, affected by high raw material costs, large industry losses, and competition from substitutes, the industry's operating rate continues to decline. Although supply pressure has weakened and spot prices are relatively firm, downstream demand is limited, and industry inventory remains high. Recently, the starch futures price has been weak, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2318 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2653 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1280330 lots, down 28590 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 239245 lots, down 829 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 98224 lots, up 7111 lots; for corn starch, it is - 4495 lots, down 1227 lots. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 211311 lots, down 524 lots; for corn starch, they are 25340 lots, down 300 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 379 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 459 cents/bushel, down 3.75 cents. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1637956 contracts, up 48527 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 11552 contracts, down 29658 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2376.27 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan; the factory - gate price of corn starch in Changchun is 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2057.71 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn main contract is 58.27 yuan/ton, up 9.19 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 37 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 377.63 million tons, in Brazil is 126 million tons, in Argentina is 50 million tons, in China is 294.92 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons, with no change in all countries' production forecasts [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 33.55 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.3 million hectares, in Argentina is 6.4 million hectares, and in China is 44.74 million hectares, with no change in all countries' sown area forecasts [2]. - The corn inventory at southern ports is 130.4 million tons, down 13.5 million tons; at northern ports, it is 486 million tons, down 9 million tons. The deep - processing corn inventory is 453.5 million tons, up 0.7 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 8 million tons, unchanged; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20350 tons, down 930 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons. The sample feed corn inventory days are 35.2 days, unchanged. The deep - processing corn consumption is 119.83 million tons, up 1.28 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 43.61%, up 1.46 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.88%, down 1.29 percentage points. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 154 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei, it is - 85 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; in Jilin, it is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.66%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.21%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.04%, down 0.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.03%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of May 21, the 2024/25 Argentina corn harvest progress is 38.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from a week ago, and the national average yield is 8.07 tons/hectare, down from 8.12 tons/hectare a week ago [2]. - The consulting agency SovEcon predicts that Russia's grain output in 2025 will reach 127.6 million tons, slightly higher than 125.9 million tons in 2024. The USDA's forecast of 1.8 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in 2025/26 restricts market prices, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations raises concerns about long - term import pressure [2]. Key Points to Watch - The mysteel corn weekly consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory data on Thursday and Friday. As of May 21, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 142.9 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.56%, a monthly increase of 3.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.40% [3].