煤炭月度供需数据点评：供应端改善，静待需求恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize with the market" rating for the coal industry [1][42]. Core Viewpoints - The coal supply growth rate has slowed down, with cumulative production from January to April 2025 reaching 1.585 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, but the growth rate has declined [3][13]. - Demand is supported by infrastructure investment, with fixed asset investment increasing by 4.0% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, although real estate investment has decreased by 10.3% [4][17]. - Coal imports have shown a negative growth trend, with cumulative imports from January to April 2025 at 15.267 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [4][24]. - Coal prices, particularly for thermal and coking coal, have been under pressure, with significant price declines noted since the beginning of 2025 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The growth rate of raw coal supply has significantly decreased, with April 2025 production at 38.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking a substantial decline from the previous month [3][13]. Demand Side - The demand for coal is primarily driven by non-electric sectors, with thermal power generation showing a cumulative decline of 4.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [4][20]. - Infrastructure investment has increased, with manufacturing investment up by 8.8% and infrastructure investment up by 5.8%, while real estate continues to face challenges [4][17]. Import Coal - Coal imports have continued to decline, with April 2025 imports at 3.783 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [4][24]. Price and Profit Performance - Coal prices have been under pressure, with the average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal decreasing since the beginning of 2025 [4][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business such as Xinjie Energy and Huahua Energy [5][38]. - It also highlights the potential for rebound in coal prices during the summer and recommends monitoring policy impacts on thermal coal prices [5][38].