东海证券晨会纪要-20250526

Key Recommendations - Focus on supply and price transmission, with attention to the midstream manufacturing sector [5] - Accelerated capacity adjustment expected, with milk prices likely stabilizing in 2025 [10] Economic Overview - Global equity markets mostly declined as of May 23, with the Hang Seng Index performing well [5] - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with OPEC+ expected to increase production in July [5] - Domestic interest rates showed divergence, with the 1Y government bond yield decreasing by 0.27 basis points to 1.45% [5] Domestic Equity Market - As of May 23, the average daily trading volume was 11,388 billion yuan, down from 12,325 billion yuan [6] - Among the 31 sectors, 10 sectors rose while 21 fell, with the pharmaceutical sector leading gains at +1.78% [6] Midstream Manufacturing Insights - The U.S. PMI composite output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating a recovery in manufacturing [7] - Domestic industrial processing of crude oil decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in April, indicating a continued destocking process [7] - Economic stimulus policies are expected to be concentrated in May and June, potentially improving consumption expectations [7] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price cycle is influenced by capacity, demand, and imports, with historical price fluctuations observed since 2008 [10] - In 2024, raw milk production is projected to decrease by 2.8% to 40.79 million tons, with a 4.5% decline in Holstein cow inventory [11] - The dairy industry is facing severe losses, with over 80% of companies affected, but prices are expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 [12] Investment Recommendations - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in milk prices, benefiting upstream dairy companies like Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy [14] - Downstream dairy companies such as Yili and New Dairy are expected to improve profitability as milk prices stabilize [14]