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煤炭行业周报:情绪有所好转,二级市场表现回升
山西证券·2025-05-26 10:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in secondary market performance. The coal production remains normal, while the demand is expected to recover as summer storage needs arise. However, coal prices are under pressure due to high temperatures in northern regions and increased hydropower output in southern areas [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: Port inventories continue to decrease, with summer storage demand anticipated. As of May 23, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 620 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -1.43% [3][24]. - Metallurgical Coal: Demand is expected to improve from the bottom, with continued inventory reduction. The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1300 CNY/ton, a weekly change of -1.52% [4][38]. - Coking and Steel Industry Chain: Coking coal prices are declining, but the overall price drop is expected to be limited due to macroeconomic improvements and stable steel demand [5][58]. - Coal Transportation: Coastal coal transportation prices are rising due to inventory reduction and port closures. The coastal coal transportation index was 717.21 points, a weekly change of +8.38% [7][69]. - Coal-related Futures: Futures prices for coking coal and coke are declining, reflecting the return of demand logic in the downstream market [71][74]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has outperformed major indices, with the CITIC Coal Index closing at 3276.27 points, a weekly change of +0.98%. The coal mining sub-sector showed a weekly change of +1.16% [8][76]. 3. Industry News Summary - The report highlights various industry developments, including China's direct foreign investment growth and the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations, which may impact coal trade dynamics [83][84]. 4. Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Notable announcements include Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal's progress on a tender offer for Shandong Xinchao Energy and other corporate governance updates from various coal companies [86]. 5. Next Week's Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while coal prices may face downward pressure, the overall decline is expected to be limited. It recommends focusing on undervalued companies with strong performance support, such as Xinjie Energy and Shaanxi Energy, and highlights the attractiveness of high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [9][88].