中爆协4月数据点评：行业利润保持韧性，持续看好民爆景气

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the overall demand for civil explosives is stabilizing and improving, despite a slight decline in production value and a decrease in profits in April 2025 due to falling raw material prices [5][7] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support from policies in western regions, which is expected to sustain the demand for civil explosives [5][7] - The report notes the significant growth potential in overseas markets and military applications, with domestic companies expanding their international presence [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the civil explosive production enterprises achieved a total production value of 11.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%, while total profits reached 2.219 billion yuan, an increase of 4.22% [4][8] - The production and sales of industrial explosives during the same period were 1.3163 million tons and 1.3034 million tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.72% and 1.65% respectively [5][12] Monthly Data Analysis - In April 2025, the production value for civil explosive enterprises was 3.689 billion yuan, down 2.76% year-on-year, with profits of 906 million yuan, down 15.99% year-on-year [5][8] - The production of industrial explosives in April was 416,500 tons, up 1.83% year-on-year, while the price of ammonium nitrate fell by 14.58% to 2,279 yuan per ton [5][7] Regional Insights - The report indicates that the production values in Xinjiang and Tibet increased by 8.74% and 7.34% respectively from January to April 2025, indicating a positive trend in civil explosive demand in these regions [5][7] - The report discusses the impact of debt resolution policies on demand recovery in high-debt provinces, with several provinces showing positive production value growth [5][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, Guangdong Hongda, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the civil explosive market [7]