Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market faces downward pressure due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other producers, potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, and uncertain demand affected by global trade tensions [3]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue weakening, with the futures price hitting a new low and the spot price likely to decline further, accompanied by range - bound fluctuations [6]. - The copper market is expected to experience high - level oscillations, with multiple factors such as uncertain macro - environment, supply - demand dynamics, and dollar index influencing the price [12]. - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [13]. - The PP market is expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, supply - demand dynamics, and trade negotiations [14]. - The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term, with factors like new production capacity,检修 devices, and trade negotiations influencing it [16]. - The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation, affected by factors such as supply - demand, export policies, and real - estate data [17]. - The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter, with supply pressure and market sentiment influencing the price [19]. - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend, with supply - demand dynamics and weather conditions affecting the price [20][22]. - The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations if external tariffs are implemented and domestic demand does not improve [23]. - The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations due to cost and demand factors [25]. - The urea market is currently in a weak state, with supply - demand dynamics and potential export factors influencing the price, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ is implementing a step - by - step production increase plan, and the US crude production is near a historical high. Other non - OPEC+ producers are also releasing production capacity, and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal may further increase supply [3]. - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. The trade negotiation between the US and the EU is difficult [3]. - Outlook: There is still downward pressure on crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Some upstream lithium - extraction enterprises are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, but the supply pressure remains due to previous over - supply [6]. - Demand: The downstream procurement intention is weak, but there is a slight improvement in overall demand [6]. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated, and the price is expected to continue to weaken [6]. Copper - Supply: The domestic refined copper production is at a high level, and the supply tension expected by the market has not materialized [12]. - Demand: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand is currently weakening [12]. - Outlook: The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to multiple factors [12]. Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has declined, but the expected production in May is increasing [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still to be restored, affected by factors such as funds and weather [13]. - Outlook: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [13]. PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices, but the overall supply is still affected by multiple factors [14]. - Demand: The downstream recovery is slow, and the new orders are limited [14]. - Outlook: The PP market is expected to oscillate [14]. Plastic - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are new maintenance devices, and the supply is affected by multiple factors [16]. - Demand: The downstream demand is general, and the new orders are slow to follow up [16]. - Outlook: The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term [16]. PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate is decreasing but still at a relatively high level [17]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still low compared to previous years, and the export is affected by policies [17]. - Outlook: The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The expected arrival of soybeans in May and June is large, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be relatively loose [19]. - Demand: The downstream market is mainly replenishing based on rigid demand, and the inventory is expected to increase [19]. - Outlook: The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter [19]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic soybean crushing volume is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient [20]. - Demand: The terminal demand for large - scale replenishment is limited, and the inventory is expected to increase [20][22]. - Outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [20][22]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, and the marginal contraction is limited [23]. - Demand: Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the inventory removal is slow [23]. - Outlook: The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations [23]. Rebar - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, with short - term slight increase [25]. - Demand: The demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory removal is slow [25]. - Outlook: The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations [25]. Urea - Supply: The production in May is expected to be higher than previous years, and the supply pressure may be slightly relieved in June [26]. - Demand: The agricultural demand is cautious, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is weakening [26]. - Outlook: The urea market is currently weak, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26].
冠通期货每日交易策略-20250526
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-05-26 11:02