美债“风暴眼”的应对与展望

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced mixed results, with US indices Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 declining by -2.5%, -2.5%, and -2.6% respectively[2] - European markets showed divergence; the UK FTSE 100 rose while Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 fell[2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, only Vietnam's VN30 index and the Hang Seng index saw gains[2] Economic Indicators - US May PMI exceeded expectations, indicating expansion in manufacturing and services sectors[2] - However, consumer confidence in the US fell by 2.7% compared to the previous month, raising concerns about economic recession[2] US Treasury Market - Following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the 30-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.15%, while the 10-year and 2-year yields reached approximately 4.63% and 4.0% respectively[2] - The surge in Treasury yields impacted the recovering US stock market, leading to significant volatility[2] Policy and Strategy - Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which contributed to market turbulence and temporarily halted further increases in Treasury yields[2] - The report suggests two main strategies: addressing inflation concerns through oil production increases and enhancing the purchasing power of the Treasury market via stablecoin issuance[2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a left-side allocation in the Treasury market, focusing on short-term bonds while trading long-term bonds[2] - In equity markets, it advises a strategy of buying low and selling high amid volatility, particularly in response to tariff negotiations[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[2]