原油月报：美国关税政策缓和，EIA、IEA上调2025年全球原油需求预期-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - IEA, EIA, and OPEC have different forecasts for global crude oil inventory, supply, and demand in 2025. The average forecast for inventory change is -4 barrels per day, remaining flat compared to the previous month. Supply and demand are both expected to increase compared to 2024 [2]. - Non - OECD countries, represented by China, are expected to be the main contributors to the global crude oil demand growth in 2025, while OECD countries' demand growth will be relatively weak [127]. - IEA predicts that the demand for chemical oil will recover significantly in 2025, both globally and in China [136][139]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 global crude oil inventory changes to be +70, +41, -122 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -10, -5, +10 barrels per day compared to April 2025 forecasts. The average inventory change forecast is -4 barrels per day, unchanged from the previous month [2]. 2. Global Crude Oil Supply 2.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil supply to be 10460, 10412, 10378 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 160, 137, 142 barrels per day compared to 2024, and an increase of 30, 2, 10 barrels per day compared to April 2025 forecasts [2]. 2.2 Global Major Regional Crude Oil Supply Situation - Three - institution regional supply increment forecasts: IEA expects supply increments in 2025 to be concentrated in OECD and non - OECD countries in the Americas; EIA expects increments in North, Central, and South American countries; OPEC expects increments in OECD countries in the Americas [33][35][40]. - OPEC+: In April 2025, the total crude oil production of 12 OPEC countries was 2671 barrels per day, a decrease of 6.2 barrels per day month - on - month. OPEC+ has a total remaining capacity of 644 barrels per day, a decrease of 3 barrels per day month - on - month [43][47]. - Russia: In April 2025, Russia's export volume was 760 barrels per day, an increase of 20 barrels per day year - on - year [65]. - USA: EIA predicts that the average US crude oil production in 2025 will be 1341 barrels per day, an increase of 21 barrels per day compared to 2024 and a decrease of 9 barrels per day compared to the April 2025 forecast [75]. 3. Global Crude Oil Demand 3.1 Global Crude Oil Demand Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil demand to be 10390, 10372, 10500 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 70, 98, 125 barrels per day compared to 2024, and changes of +40, +7, -5 barrels per day compared to April 2025 forecasts [2]. - OECD countries' crude oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to be weak, while non - OECD countries' demand will grow significantly, with China potentially leading the growth [127]. 3.3 Global Different Petroleum Product Demand Situation - Globally, IEA predicts that in 2025, the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline will increase by 12, 4, 21 barrels per day respectively compared to 2024, and the demand for LPG, ethane, and naphtha in the chemical sector will increase by 25, 19 barrels per day respectively [136]. - In China, IEA predicts that in 2025, the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline will change by +4, +1, -12 barrels per day respectively compared to 2024, and the demand for LPG, ethane, and naphtha in the chemical sector will increase by 3, 15 barrels per day respectively [139]. Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include CNOOC, PetroChina, Sinopec, COSL, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services [3]. - Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service, CNPC Engineering, and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering [3].