国投期货软商品日报-20250526

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (white stars, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, import and export, and consumption. Most commodities are recommended to wait and see in the short term, and some can try light - position operations after a callback [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with weak downstream demand being the main limiting factor. Domestic cotton imports remained low in April 2025. The recent rise in Zhengzhou cotton was driven by the positive news of China - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. Cotton inventory decreased well from March to April, and if the negotiations continue to improve, there may be a tight - end - of - season inventory situation. It is recommended to wait and see or try the bullish spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated last week. In May, the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased, which was conducive to sugarcane harvesting. Most international consulting companies expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil to remain high in the 25/26 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The import profit of sugar increased due to the continuous decline of US sugar, and the import volume was expected to increase. The market focused on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, and the import volume decreased in the first quarter, but the downward trend of US sugar limited the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price was weak. The spot price remained stable. The market shipment in Shandong was slow, and the demand for apples decreased due to the rising temperature and the listing of seasonal fruits. The market focused on the new - season production estimate. There were differences in the production estimate due to the impact of high - temperature and windy weather in the western producing areas. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU slightly rose, NR fluctuated, and BR continued to decline. The supply of natural rubber entered the increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate decreased. The domestic tire operation rate decreased, and the inventory of tire finished products increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - The pulp price declined today. The port inventory decreased slightly, but it was still high year - on - year. The demand for pulp was weak, and the recent rise was mainly driven by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long lightly after a callback [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the spot price remained stable. The supply side saw an increase in the arrival volume in China last week. The demand entered the off - season, and the port inventory decreased, but the radiation pine continued to accumulate inventory. The supply of New Zealand logs was expected to remain low, but the domestic demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]