Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes multiple petrochemical products, suggesting that the polyolefin category is weak while the aromatic hydrocarbon category is strong. Overall, most products have a bearish medium - term outlook, with varying short - term trends. The report provides logical analyses and technical tracking for each product, along with corresponding trading strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Overseas macro - path is unclear, with potential macro - risks. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase in the medium - term, and there is a risk of US demand falling short of expectations in the short - term. There is a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal. - Technical Tracking: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Consider today's price increase as a rebound on reduced positions, with short - term pressure at 475. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Low inventory, but supply is expected to increase due to early resumption of previously shut - down plants. Cost support is weak, and downstream demand has limited growth. - Technical Tracking: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. Short - term pressure at 7345. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference moved down to 7345 [5]. (3) PX - Logic: PX plants are in maintenance, with low operating rates and good short - term fundamentals. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - Technical Tracking: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - Strategy: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [9]. (4) PTA - Logic: Supply - side plant operating rates are increasing, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. Demand - side polyester operating rates are strong. However, the cost factor may dominate the market after the decline in crude oil prices. - Technical Tracking: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support refers to the low on May 13. - Strategy: Wait for a short - selling opportunity after the support is broken [13]. (5) PP - Logic: Supply - side operating rates are stable, but new production capacity is expected to come on stream in June. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and downstream demand support is insufficient. - Technical Tracking: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation with significant position increases, indicating strong downward momentum. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure and stop - profit referring to the high on May 21 [17]. (6) Methanol - Logic: Domestic operating rates have decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, but overseas operating rates are increasing, and imports are expected to rise in June. Demand is basically flat year - on - year, and the market is under pressure. - Technical Tracking: Downward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation, with price increases on reduced positions and decreases on increased positions. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit reference at the high on May 22 [18]. (7) Rubber - Logic: Demand is weak, with high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. There is no expectation of export demand recovery, and the EU has launched an anti - dumping investigation. Domestic inventories are accumulating against the season. - Technical Tracking: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly level. Today's price decline on increased positions. The upper pressure of the oscillation range refers to the high on April 8. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the upper edge of the oscillation range on the hourly cycle [21]. (8) PVC - Logic: Real - estate data in April is still poor, and downstream demand is difficult to improve. Plant maintenance is ending, and supply is expected to increase. - Technical Tracking: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 4980. - Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities after a reversal pattern on the hourly cycle [24]. (9) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply - side operating rates have decreased slightly, and arrivals are increasing. Demand - side polyester operating rates remain high. - Technical Tracking: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level and short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term support at 4315. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss at 4455 [25]. (10) Plastic - Technical Tracking: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's intraday oscillation. Short - term pressure at 7120. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - profit moved down to 7120 [27]. (11) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: In June, plants are expected to resume production after maintenance, leading to a potential increase in butadiene supply. Demand is weak due to high inventories of terminal automobiles and tires. - Technical Tracking: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively. Today's long - negative candlestick. The upper pressure refers to 12120. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29].
原油继续等待驱动:聚烯烃类偏弱,芳烃类偏强
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-05-26 12:39