宏观经济研究：论降息的重要性

Long-term Importance of Rate Cuts - Since 2018, China has entered a long-term rate cut cycle, which is expected to continue due to ongoing adjustments in population, debt, and real estate cycles[8] - In 2024, China's total population is projected to be 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million from 2023, indicating a long-term trend of population decline[8] - By the first quarter of 2025, China's macro leverage ratio reached 298.4%, nearing the critical level of 300% identified as a potential financial crisis threshold[9] Short-term Importance of Rate Cuts - The contribution of net exports to GDP reached 38.9% in the first quarter, the highest since 2009, highlighting the need for internal stability amid external uncertainties[13] - Real estate assets account for 66.8% of urban residents' total assets, making housing market stability crucial for consumer spending and investment[14] - The current real estate interest rates remain high, suppressing demand, necessitating further rate cuts to stimulate the market[14] Limitations of Rate Cuts - Rate cuts cannot resolve issues such as poor interest rate transmission and rising leverage ratios, which require broader macroeconomic reforms[15] - The banking sector's net interest margin is under pressure not solely due to low rates but also due to a significant oversupply of capital in the market[16] - Domestic and international interest rate differentials are widening, with external factors influencing domestic monetary policy decisions[17] - To maintain a stable government leverage ratio by 2025, actual interest rates need to decrease to 0.32%, significantly lower than the current rate of 4.52%[17]