高盛TMT日报0526

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which is currently favored for investment during the summer [29]. Core Insights - The NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) experienced a 2% decline last week due to mixed headlines and overbought conditions, with the index's 200-day moving average approximately 2.5% away [3][4]. - There is a notable downward trend in cyclical stocks, with the CYCS vs DEFS pair down 6 of the last 7 days, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns about "pull forward" dynamics [4][6]. - Investors are increasingly focused on finding new long positions with real upside potential, particularly outside of mega-cap stocks, as the market shifts towards a services-oriented framework over goods [5][6]. - Upcoming earnings reports, particularly from NVDA (Nvidia), are expected to set the tone for the summer, with a reliance on earnings revisions rather than just multiple expansions to drive market upside [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The NDX's recent performance shows a consolidation phase, with several charts indicating a search for support after recent declines [3][4]. - The semiconductor sector has also faced a downturn, with the SOX index down for seven consecutive days [4][8]. Investor Sentiment - A survey of institutional investors revealed that 37% consider trade policy the biggest risk for the summer, followed by concerns about US growth (26%) and the US deficit (23%) [23]. - 97% of respondents believe that a continued rise in backend yields could pose problems for equities, with significant attention on 10-year yield levels [26]. Sector Preferences - The TMT and Financials sectors are viewed as the most favorable for investment this summer, while consumer discretionary stocks are the least favored [29]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic and tariff headlines as investors prepare for the second half of the year, focusing on companies that have managed to de-risk their outlooks in recent earnings reports [7].