有色金属行业周报：未来一周金属价格或持续波动-20250526

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that metal prices are likely to continue fluctuating due to multiple factors, including changes in U.S. interest rate expectations and U.S.-EU tariff negotiations. The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's has also contributed to increased volatility in major metal prices [3][24] - Precious metals are experiencing upward fluctuations and are susceptible to short-term event-driven catalysts. The report highlights that the current gold price is in a volatile phase influenced by short-term events and market sentiment [23][24] - The investment suggestion includes a focus on Zijin Mining (600988.SH) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (601899.SH) [3] Summary by Sections 1.1 Market Trends - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 1.26%. Among the sub-industries, industrial metals rose by 1.86%, precious metals by 5.58%, while small metals decreased by 1.9% [11] 1.2 Major Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price changes for major industrial metals, with LME copper at $9,614 per ton, down 1.84$2,379 per ton, down 6.63% week-on-week [16] - For precious metals, COMEX gold is priced at $3,056 per ounce, down 1.99% week-on-week, while domestic gold is at ¥780 per gram, up 2.42% week-on-week [19] 1.3 Key Company Announcements - Yunnan Copper announced plans to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining through a share issuance and to raise matching funds from China Aluminum Group and China Copper [22] - Zhongjin Gold announced plans to acquire stakes in several gold mining companies from its controlling shareholder, China National Gold Group [22] 2. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes that precious metals are currently in an upward trend, influenced by U.S. monetary policy and tariff negotiations. The recent comments from the Atlanta Fed President indicate a shift towards a more hawkish stance on interest rates [23][24] 3. Industrial Metals - The report notes a slight recovery in China's electrolytic copper inventory, which remains low, providing good support for copper prices. However, downstream demand is still weak. Aluminum inventory continues to decline, leading to a slight increase in electrolytic aluminum prices [33]