中泰期货纸浆周报-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand in the pulp market. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of rigid demand but high inventory. Overall, the market will maintain a volatile trend when there is no obvious improvement or positive factors in demand. The arrival of pulp is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment, and focus on the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products in the future [17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Overview 3.1.1 Supply - side - Domestic supply: This week, domestic pulp production showed a slight decline. The production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 0.70 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 0.26%. The production of chemical mechanical pulp was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons compared with last week. The overall domestic supply was relatively stable [7][8] - Import supply: In April 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.893 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 12.531 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.0%. Affected by overseas shipments and domestic import seasonality, the arrival is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July [8] 3.1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Downstream demand: This week, downstream pulp production was stable. The output of living paper was 300,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with last week; the output of offset paper was 210,800 tons, a slight increase compared with last week; the output of coated paper was 76,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with last week; the output of white cardboard was 297,900 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with last week. Gradually entering the off - season, the downstream start - up rate was basically stable, but new production capacity was being put into operation, while terminal demand was limited, resulting in stable production but a continuous decline in the start - up rate and approaching inventory accumulation [10] - Inventory situation: This week, port inventory decreased. The total port inventory was 2.162 million tons, an increase of 0.4 tons compared with last week. The decrease in prices stimulated the replenishment willingness of some paper mills, and spot transactions improved. The warehouse receipt inventory also decreased. The total warehouse receipt inventory was 248,273 tons, a decrease of 4,359 tons compared with last week. The price decline led some paper mills to be interested in purchasing cheap Russian needles, and some warehouse receipts were cancelled and flowed to downstream factories [10] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - Cost: The domestic cost of broad - leaf pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with last week; the import cost of Silver Star was 5,952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 259 yuan/ton compared with last week. The cost of imported pulp generally showed a downward trend [13] - Profit: The apparent profit of domestic pulp was acceptable, but the actual transaction price continued to decline. The import pulp spot price decreased, which affected the downstream purchasing willingness to some extent. The profit of domestic pulp is expected to decline, while the spot price of imported pulp decreased with the market, and the immediate import profit is expected to recover. The profit of paper products improved in the short - term due to the decline in raw material prices, but as it approached the off - season, the price of finished products decreased, and the profit also showed a weakening trend [13] 3.1.4 Price and Spread - Price: The foreign market quotation decreased significantly. For example, the quotation of Silver Star decreased from 770 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton. The spot price of needles was relatively strong, and the basis remained at a high level. The broad - leaf pulp was close to the domestic cost line, and the downward space was relatively limited, showing a certain degree of stability. The futures price fluctuated in a pattern of weak demand and high inventory [15] - Spread: The spread between needles and broad - leaves remained at a high level. The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish continued to be high, breaking through 2,000 and approaching the historical extreme value. Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures market entered a positive arbitrage logic, and the demand for far - month contracts was relatively pessimistic. The basis was relatively stable this week [15] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendation - The reason for market fluctuations: The spot market was relatively stable, and cultural paper companies successively issued price increase letters with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The downstream start - up rates of different paper types showed different trends [17] - Future outlook: In the short - term, there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand, and the market will maintain a volatile trend. The arrival of pulp is expected to recover in May, decrease slightly in June, and the reduction of the Star brand is expected to affect the arrival in July [17] - Trading logic and suggestions: Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The fundamentals are short - term volatile, and focus on the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [17] 3.2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory situation of pulp from January 2024 to June 2025. It includes data such as domestic production, import volume, downstream production, pulp consumption, and inventory. For example, in April 2025, the domestic production was 317,900 tons, the import volume was 2.893 million tons, and the total supply was 5.4492 million tons [20] 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Global pulp shipping volume: No specific data analysis was provided in the content - European apparent demand and inventory: No specific data analysis was provided in the content 3.3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - side - Pulp import: The import volume showed certain fluctuations. In April 2025, the total pulp import volume decreased compared with the previous month [8] - Bleached softwood pulp import: The import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries showed different seasonal and cumulative trends. For example, the import volume of Russian bleached softwood pulp and its cumulative import volume and year - on - year changes were presented [49][70] - Other pulp imports: The import of chemical mechanical pulp, unbleached pulp, needle chips, and broad - leaf chips also showed different trends [79][86] - Demand - side - Pulp apparent demand: No specific data analysis was provided in the content - Downstream finished paper analysis - Production capacity and production plan: There are a large number of planned and under - construction projects for domestic pulp - related products in the future. For example, there are many new production capacity plans for living paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard in different regions. However, due to factors such as the slow growth of downstream demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the white cardboard industry has increased, affecting the production progress of some production capacity [106] - Import and export of finished paper: The import and export volume of different types of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the import volume of living paper was relatively small, and the export volume of some paper types showed certain fluctuations [109][125] - Inventory - side - Total pulp inventory, warehouse receipts, and port inventory: The total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory showed different trends over time. For example, the total pulp inventory showed a certain degree of volatility, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased this week [10][152] - Inventory by port: The inventory of different ports such as Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, and Changshu Port also showed different trends [156][157][159] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Pulp import cost and profit: The import cost of pulp decreased, and the immediate import profit is expected to recover [13] - Domestic pulp production cost and profit: The apparent profit of domestic pulp was acceptable, but the actual profit was affected by the decline in transaction prices and the decrease in import pulp prices, showing a downward trend [13] 3.5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Foreign market quotation: The foreign market quotation of pulp decreased significantly [15] - Seasonal price and spread: The prices of different pulp brands such as Silver Star, Russian needle, and Goldfish showed different seasonal trends, and the spreads between them also showed different characteristics [179][184] - Basis: The basis between different pulp brands and futures contracts showed different trends over time. For example, the basis between Silver Star and futures contracts 07 and 09 showed certain fluctuations [186][187]