瑞银：中国展望：关税冲击、房地产市场下行与政策刺激

Investment Rating - The report suggests a GDP growth forecast of 4% for 2025E, indicating a cautious outlook amid tariff shocks and property downturns [47]. Core Insights - The economic outlook for China in 2024 shows an uneven recovery characterized by a deep property decline, soft consumption, robust capital expenditure (CAPEX), and strong exports. For 2025, a less severe property downturn is anticipated alongside tariff shocks and policy stimulus [4][10]. - The report highlights significant policy easing measures, including cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR), interest rates, and increased fiscal spending to support local governments and stimulate the economy [18][19]. - The property market is expected to continue its downturn but at a reduced pace, with sales, starts, and real estate investment (REI) projected to decline by 5-10%, 10-15%, and 5-10% respectively in 2025E, which is less severe than the declines seen in 2024 [48][49]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is projected at 4% for 2025E, down from 5.4% in 2023 and 5.0% in 2024 [2]. - Consumption growth is expected to stabilize at 4.6% in 2025E, following a rebound from 8.8% in 2023 [2]. Investment Trends - Fixed investment growth is forecasted to increase to 4.2% in 2025E, recovering from 2.1% in 2023 [2]. - Infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) is anticipated to pick up to 10-12% in 2025E, driven by policy support [48]. Trade and Exports - Exports are expected to weaken in 2025-26E due to higher US tariffs, despite a robust performance in 2024 [47][48]. - The report notes that 57% of Chinese goods are subject to additional tariffs, impacting trade dynamics [25]. Policy Measures - The report outlines extensive policy easing measures, including a 50 basis points cut in RRR and a significant increase in local government bond issuance to support financing [18][19]. - Structural policies are being implemented to boost employment, support mid-and-low-income households, and enhance foreign investment [18]. Property Market - The property market is experiencing its sharpest downturn in history, with a projected further decline in 2025E, albeit less severe than in 2024 [49]. - Policy measures are being introduced to facilitate property destocking and support home delivery, including cuts in mortgage rates and down payment requirements [18][49].