高盛：全球利率交易：久期烫手山芋

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing pressures in global long-end rates, particularly influenced by rising Japanese 30-year yields, US fiscal issues, and high UK inflation, suggesting a cautious outlook for long-duration assets [1] - It emphasizes the importance of demand-side signals in the US Treasury market, indicating that the current fiscal trajectory may not significantly alter deficit expectations [2] - The report suggests that the UK long-end is still facing challenges despite some improvement in economic activity, with a recommendation to maintain long positions in 10-year Gilts versus US Treasuries [16] Summary by Sections Global Rates Overview - Global long-end rates are under pressure due to various factors including Japanese yields and UK inflation, with limited relief from trade risks [1] - The report suggests a preference for shorter maturities in the US Treasury market, indicating a shift in focus from long-duration assets [5] United States and Canada - The report discusses the impact of Moody's downgrade and fiscal package progress on US Treasuries, highlighting a lack of appetite to stabilize fiscal trajectories amid waning global demand [2] - It notes that the fiscal bill is unlikely to significantly change the deficit path, maintaining a steady increase in debt burden [2] Europe - The report indicates that trade uncertainty and fiscal expansion in Germany are contributing to a steep front-end of the European curve, with a preference for 5-year HICP longs [12] - It also mentions that sovereign credit remains favorable due to improved risk sentiment and fiscal policies, with expectations for Bonos to outperform BTPs and OATs [13] UK Market - The report highlights improving activity data in the UK but warns that inflation surprises could complicate the outlook for long-end Gilts [16] - It continues to recommend long positions in 10-year Gilts versus US Treasuries, reflecting a cautious but optimistic view on UK bonds [16] Japan - The report describes the long-end JGB sell-off as a potential indicator of broader global duration risks, with technical factors dominating the price action [19] - It suggests that fiscal concerns and rising inflationary pressures may lead to higher equilibrium rates, impacting global yields [19] Australia and New Zealand - The report notes a dovish pivot from the RBA, with expectations for multiple rate cuts this year, indicating a more benign inflation outlook [24] - It suggests that the current front-end of the AUD curve is fairly priced given these expectations [24] Forecasts - The report provides forecasts for G10 10-year yields, indicating expected movements across various currencies, with a focus on the US and UK markets [30]