高盛：债券与美好前景：关于美元、人民币、财政与外汇、日元、韩元、罗马尼亚列伊、土耳其里拉的观点及对避险资产的重新评估

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining relatively broad Dollar shorts, indicating a bearish outlook on the USD [1][18][20] Core Insights - The Dollar's weak response to fiscal developments is attributed to bad timing and persistent deficit financing needs, leading to concerns about foreign demand for US assets [1][5] - The report highlights a potential for a stronger CNY due to improved US-China trade relations and the undervaluation of the Yuan [4][12] - The Yen is viewed as a safe haven, with expectations that higher US yields will not significantly hinder its strength [12][18] - The KRW is expected to outperform other Asian currencies, supported by discussions of foreign exchange in US-Korea trade negotiations [13] - The RON is forecasted to weaken due to elevated current account deficits despite recent political stability [14] - The TRY is stabilizing after previous volatility, with expectations of gradual depreciation [15] Summary by Sections USD - The report notes that the Dollar's response to fiscal support and higher yields has been minimal, with a focus on the US's large deficit financing needs [1][5] - Investors are advised to maintain broad Dollar shorts, with EUR and JPY as attractive hedges against risk assets [1][20] CNY - The CNY has recently strengthened, with forecasts adjusted to 7.10 and 7.00 for 6-month and 12-month horizons respectively [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for a stronger Yuan as trade relations improve and the currency remains undervalued [4][12] JPY - The Yen is considered a safe haven, with expectations that fiscal concerns in the US will not significantly impact its strength [12] - The report suggests a preference for short AUD/JPY as a hedge during risk-off periods [12] KRW - The KRW is expected to benefit from a gradually strengthening CNY and discussions in US-Korea trade negotiations [13] - The report indicates that Korean policymakers are supportive of a stronger currency [13] RON - The RON is forecasted to weaken due to higher projected fiscal deficits and a delayed fiscal adjustment [14] - The report anticipates a controlled increase in EUR/RON forecasts over the next 12 months [14] TRY - The TRY is stabilizing after significant depreciation, with expectations of a gradual slowdown in depreciation rates [15] - The report adjusts USD/TRY forecasts higher, reflecting a more stable outlook [15]