4月社零报告专题：4月社零同比+5.1%，政策效应持续显现

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 5.48% [10][12]. - Urban retail sales growth has outpaced rural sales for two consecutive months, with urban sales growing by 5.2% and rural sales by 4.7% in April [12]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in the restaurant and retail sectors, with stable growth in essential and discretionary categories, particularly in jewelry, furniture, and home appliances [20][29]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - April 2025 retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year, totaling 37,174 billion yuan, which is lower than the expected growth rate [10][12]. - Urban retail sales reached 32,376 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%, while rural sales were 4,798 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.7% [12]. Category Performance - The restaurant sector maintained stable growth, with total sales of 4,167 billion yuan in April, marking a 5.2% increase year-on-year [20]. - Retail sales of goods totaled 33,007 billion yuan, also growing by 5.1% year-on-year, contributing 89% to total retail sales [20][22]. - Upgraded and real estate-related products showed strong sales growth, with categories like home appliances and furniture seeing increases of 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [29]. Price Trends - Both CPI and PPI saw year-on-year declines, with April CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -2.7%, leading to an expanded PPI-CPI gap of -2.6% [31][37]. - Food prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, while non-food prices remained stable, indicating a mixed price environment [37]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in April 2025 was 5.1%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [45][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the liquor sector, particularly high-end and regional leaders, as the white liquor segment is expected to recover with supportive policies [56]. - The beauty and personal care sector is highlighted as a strong growth area, especially during promotional events like "618" [56].