平安证券海外策略双周报：美国财政风险升温，美元资产表现承压-20250526

Group 1: Overseas Asset Performance - Global stock markets rose by 2.50% from May 12 to May 23, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 2.52% and 4.51% respectively[7] - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 12 basis points and 14 basis points to 4.00% and 4.51% respectively[7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.29% to 99.1, while COMEX gold prices rose by 0.86%[7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.1% during the week of May 12 to May 16, and fluctuated between 1.1% and -0.7% in the following week[8] - The healthcare sector saw a 5.57% increase due to a significant licensing agreement between domestic pharmaceutical companies and Pfizer[8] - Southbound capital flows shifted from outflow to inflow, driven by IPOs of companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine[8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. April CPI and PPI both showed a year-on-year decline, with CPI at 2.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[9] - Retail sales growth fell sharply from 1.7% to 0.1% month-on-month, indicating potential demand exhaustion due to preemptive consumption[22] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, while core services inflation was driven by a 0.5% increase in medical care prices[15] Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Policy Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to concerns over large fiscal deficits increasing government debt burdens[10] - The House version of the budget reconciliation bill indicates a projected increase in deficits by $3.055 trillion over the next decade[41] - The anticipated number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve decreased from three to two for the year, with the first cut now expected in September[9]