中泰证券当前经济与政策思考：日美货物贸易博弈的重点内容及可能影响

Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - Since April, multiple contacts between the US and Japan have not yielded results, with negotiations covering goods, finance, energy, and military security[3] - The US aims to increase exports to Japan, particularly in agricultural products and automobiles, while Japan has high tariffs on US agricultural imports, averaging 80% for grains and 200% for rice[10] - The potential outcome of "market access for tariff concessions" could significantly impact China, especially if Japan increases imports of US agricultural products and automobiles[3] Group 2: Impact on China - If Japan expands imports of US agricultural products, it may reduce China's exports of vegetables, fruits, and seafood to Japan, with China's exports of fish products to Japan valued at approximately $260 million in 2024[15] - The US's total agricultural exports are projected to reach $177.78 billion in 2024, with soybeans, grains, and meat being the top three categories, potentially alleviating export pressure on the US to China[16] - Japan's increased imports of US automobiles could affect China's high-end vehicle exports, with Japan's average import price for US cars around $64,000, impacting Chinese brands like NIO and Li Auto[19] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and policy changes, as well as potential delays in the availability of public data used in the report[21] - Japan's direct investment in the US manufacturing sector reached approximately $23.96 billion in 2023, which could enhance Japanese companies' competitive advantages in non-US markets[20]