德邦证券海外市场周报：美债“风暴眼”的应对与展望-20250526

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a mixed performance last week, with US indices showing declines: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 fell by -2.5%, -2.5%, and -2.6% respectively[2] - European markets displayed divergent trends, with the UK FTSE 100 rising while Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 retreated[2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, only Vietnam's VN30 index and the Hang Seng index recorded gains[2] Economic Indicators - The US May PMI exceeded expectations, indicating expansion in manufacturing and services, but consumer confidence fell by 2.7% compared to the previous month[5] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, prompting concerns over the US economy and impacting global markets[5] Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year US Treasury yield surpassed 5.15%, while the 10-year and 2-year yields approached 4.63% and 4.0% respectively, reflecting rising interest rates[5] - The bond market is viewed as the "eye of the storm," with ongoing volatility affecting equity markets and the dollar's strength[5] Inflation and Policy Outlook - Inflation risks remain a concern, with potential for unexpected rebounds in US and European inflation impacting central bank policies and market valuations[3][61] - Strategies to address inflation include cooperation from oil-producing nations to increase output and effective tariff negotiations[5] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A left-side positioning in US Treasuries is recommended to navigate equity and commodity volatility, focusing on short-term bonds while trading long-term bonds[5] - In equity markets, a strategy of buying low and selling high is crucial during this period of turbulence, particularly in response to tariff negotiations[5]