全球股市立体投资策略周报：情绪修复兑现，股市风偏回落-20250526

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a correction, with MSCI Global down by 1.9%, MSCI Developed down by 2.1%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.5%[6] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 1.1%, while the Korean Composite Index declined by 1.3%[14] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index were revised upward, with 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2214 to 2222[4] - In contrast, the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was downgraded from 264 to 263, and the Eurozone STOXX50's forecast decreased from 348 to 347[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic surprise index rose from -12.6 to 6.0, indicating a potential recovery, while the Eurozone's index fell from 15.4 to 12.5 due to tariff impacts[96] - China's economic surprise index stood at 45.9, benefiting from policy support and easing trade tensions with the U.S.[96] Liquidity Conditions - Global liquidity conditions tightened, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates 1.9 times this year, while the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates 2.3 times[7] - Long-term interest rates for major countries increased, with the UK 10Y bond yield rising by 13.3 basis points, the largest increase among developed markets[6] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed well in the U.S. and Europe, while technology sectors faced adjustments[21] - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare and materials sectors led gains, with increases of 6.1% and 5.6% respectively[21]