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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250527
Soochow Securities·2025-05-26 23:30

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent auction results for US and Japanese long-term bonds show weak demand, raising concerns about US debt liquidity and fiscal sustainability, leading to a significant drop in US stocks and a rise in gold prices by 4.8% [1] - Analysts have collectively revised the US GDP growth forecast upward for the year while lowering CPI inflation expectations, maintaining the outlook for the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year [1] Fixed Income - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is currently in a "data-dependent mode," likely to hold rates steady in June, but may start cutting rates between July and September if economic data continues to weaken [2] - It is recommended to pay attention to the value of interbank certificates of deposit following the recent reduction in deposit rates [3] Real Estate Industry - The report notes an increase in new home transactions both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a similar trend observed in second-hand home sales [6] - The LPR was adjusted down by 10 basis points, with the 5-year LPR now at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [6] - Investment recommendations include major developers like China Resources Land and Poly Developments, as well as property management firms such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service [6] Retail Industry - The retail sales total for April was reported at 3.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, maintaining a high growth rate [7] - Investment opportunities in the consumer sector include beauty care brands like Maogeping and pet food companies like Guibao Pet [7] Oil Industry - The report highlights that the EIA and IEA have raised their global oil demand forecasts for 2025, with recommendations for companies like CNOOC and Sinopec [8] Gas Industry - The report anticipates a relaxed supply of gas and cost optimization for gas companies, with a focus on companies like Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [9] Electric Power Equipment Industry - The report indicates that Tesla is set to ramp up production of humanoid robots, with significant growth expected in the electric vehicle sector [11] - The domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.23 million units in April, with a projected annual growth of 25-30% [11] Construction Materials Industry - The report suggests a continued recommendation for consumer building materials, with expectations for the home improvement sector to benefit from stimulus policies [12][13] - It highlights the potential for infrastructure projects in the Midwest to provide a buffer against external demand fluctuations [13] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the innovative drug sector, recommending companies like BeiGene and Hengrui Medicine [15][16] Non-Bank Financial Industry - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, with a focus on insurance and securities firms benefiting from economic recovery [19] Precious Metals Industry - The report notes that gold prices have surged due to concerns over US fiscal health and fluctuating tariff policies, with gold closing at $3,357.70 per ounce [20] Coal Industry - The report indicates that coal prices are stabilizing after a period of decline, with recommendations for companies like Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [21]