Guoxin Securities·2025-05-27 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Bilibili-W (09626.HK) [5][3] Core Views - The company's adjusted net profit turned positive, indicating continuous improvement in operational quality. In Q1 2025, Bilibili achieved revenue of 7.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with operating profit growing by 58% to 2.539 billion yuan. The net loss narrowed to 0.1 billion yuan, a 99% year-on-year reduction, and adjusted net profit reached 0.362 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 0.456 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][3] - User growth remains strong, with MAU and DAU reaching 368 million and 107 million respectively in Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 8% and 4%. The average user age is now 26 years, reflecting an improving commercialization environment [2][3] - The advertising business performed well, with Q1 revenue of 1.998 billion yuan, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in performance-based advertising. The mobile gaming segment saw a remarkable 76% year-on-year revenue increase to 1.731 billion yuan, largely due to the success of the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Bilibili's revenue was 7.003 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow to 1.302 billion yuan from 0.638 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The company expects revenues of 30.161 billion yuan, 33.304 billion yuan, and 36.683 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 10%, and 10% [3][4] User Engagement - Bilibili's MAU and DAU reached 368 million and 107 million in Q1 2025, with daily average usage time increasing to 108 minutes [2][3] - The average age of users has risen to 26 years, indicating a broader demographic appeal and improved monetization potential [2][3] Revenue Streams - The revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 shows that value-added services accounted for 40%, advertising for 28%, and gaming for 25% of total revenue [24] - The value-added services revenue grew by 11% year-on-year, while advertising revenue increased by 20% [2][3] Future Outlook - The report projects that Bilibili will achieve net profits of 0.756 billion yuan, 1.761 billion yuan, and 2.945 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77, 4.12, and 6.89 yuan [3][4]