煤焦早报：粗钢限产传闻发酵，关注环保督察对供给影响-20250527

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coke is "Oscillating Weakly", and for coking coal is also "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy in April showed mixed signals. Real - estate prices and industrial增加值 had setbacks, while government leverage continued. The market is looking forward to supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. The policy - market cycle in recent years shows different market sentiments in each quarter [4] - For coking coal, supply is starting to contract, and the biggest negative pressure is easing. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. The second - round price cut expectation for coke is strengthening, and it is expected to be implemented soon. Potential positives include possible production cuts in the steel industry and fiscal policy support [5] - Rumors of downstream steel production cuts are fermenting, and the possibility of production cuts is higher than last year. Environmental inspections may further limit the supply of coking coal and coke. Despite the weak supply - demand situation, the pessimistic sentiment may be reversed under low - valuation and supply - side contraction expectations [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Coking Coal Supply - The spot price of coking coal has been lowered, and the futures price has declined. The domestic coking coal mine operating rate has dropped significantly. The 523 - mine operating rate is 86.3% (-2.96), and the 110 - coal - washing plant operating rate is 62.36% (+0.28) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. 523 - mine clean coal inventory is 447.53 million tons (+37.08), coal - washing plant clean coal inventory is 214.74 million tons (+11.48), 247 - steel - mill inventory is 798.75 million tons (+7.54), 230 - coking - enterprise inventory is 737.96 (-14.6), and port inventory is 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2] Coke Supply - The expectation of a second - round spot price cut for coke is strengthening, and the futures price has declined. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.18% (-0.05) [3] Demand - The demand has peaked and declined. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory has increased, and downstream inventory has decreased. 230 - coking - enterprise inventory is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), 247 - steel - mill inventory is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Suggestion - The current economic data shows a complex situation. Although the real - estate and industrial sectors are under pressure, government leverage continues. The market is waiting for supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies. For coking coal, the supply contraction may relieve inventory pressure. For coke, the second - round price cut is likely to be implemented. The potential positives may change the market sentiment [4][5][6]