固定收益市场周观察：建议在3Y左右做下沉挖掘

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For credit bonds, the cost - performance is gradually decreasing. It is recommended to conduct sinking exploration around the 3 - year term, which is suitable as a bottom - position allocation, and adjust the sinking scale and proportion according to the subsequent market trend. Priority should be given to sinking rather than extending the duration [5][10]. - For convertible bonds, the short - term strategy is to defend, and investors can allocate when the price drops. The logic of being optimistic about convertible bonds remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the rating adjustment risk in June [5][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Credit&转债市场观察与思考 1.1 Credit Bonds - From May 19th to May 25th, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 26.16 billion yuan, more than doubling month - on - month. The total repayment amount was 24.3 billion yuan, also increasing significantly, with a net inflow of 1.86 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA + grades were 2.04% and 2.15% respectively, down 2bp and 1bp from the previous week. The frequency of new AA/AA - grade bonds remained low [8]. - The yields of all grades and terms decreased, with a central decline of about 2bp, especially for high - grade and long - term bonds. The risk - free yield curve moved slightly upward at the short end. The spreads of all grades and terms narrowed, with an average narrowing of about 3bp, and the narrowing speed slowed down month - on - month. The term spreads of all grades generally narrowed, and the grade spreads of short - term bonds narrowed while those of long - term bonds slightly widened [9][18]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in all provinces narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 5bp. The credit spreads of industrial bonds in most industries also narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 2bp, slightly underperforming urban investment bonds. The real estate industry's spreads slightly widened by 3bp [9][23][24]. - The turnover rate in the secondary market decreased by 0.23pct to 1.74%, returning to the median level. High - discount bonds were mostly real - estate enterprise bonds [9][26]. - As the market is further explored, the cost - performance of credit bonds shows a downward trend. It is recommended to conduct sinking exploration around the 3 - year term [5][10]. 1.2 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market indices fluctuated and adjusted. The daily average trading volume decreased slightly. After the tariff disturbance, institutional investors had a profit - taking sentiment. The medium - to long - term outlook is still optimistic, but short - term fluctuations are more likely [5][11]. - The performance of convertible bonds was relatively good last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index only declined by 0.11%, the parity center decreased by 0.4% to 94.2 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 0.8% to 28.5%. The daily average trading volume decreased significantly [5][11]. - In terms of style, large - cap, high - grade, and low - price convertible bonds performed well, while high - price and low - grade convertible bonds were relatively weak. The current sentiment of convertible bonds is weak, and the strategy is mainly for profit - taking and defense. It is advisable to keep the option to increase positions and allocate when the price drops, and pay attention to the rating adjustment risk in June [5][11]. 2 Credit Bond Review 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue events this week. However, the credit ratings of Shanxi Yuci Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. and related bonds were downgraded. Moody's placed AVIC International Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and related entities on the rating downgrade review list. Multiple companies had negative events such as legal disputes, overdue debts, and regulatory warnings [12][13][15]. 2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds increased significantly month - on - month, but the maturity scale almost doubled year - on - year, resulting in a small net inflow. The issuance cost of medium - and high - grade bonds decreased slightly, while the frequency of new AA/AA - grade bonds remained low [15][16]. 2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds decreased across the board, with high - grade and long - term bonds having a larger decline. The yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend, and the spreads narrowed comprehensively, with a central narrowing of about 3bp [18]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in all provinces narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 5bp. The credit spreads of industrial bonds in most industries also narrowed, with a central narrowing of about 2bp, slightly underperforming urban investment bonds. The real estate industry's spreads slightly widened by 3bp [23][24]. - The turnover rate in the secondary market decreased by 0.23pct to 1.74%, returning to the median level. High - discount bonds were mostly real - estate enterprise bonds [26]. 3 Convertible Bond Review 3.1 Market Overall Performance - Last week, the equity market indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others all declined. The pharmaceutical, comprehensive, and non - ferrous metal industries had the highest gains, while the computer, machinery, and communication industries had the largest losses [11][30]. - The leading convertible bonds mostly underperformed their underlying stocks. The list of popular individual bonds changed. Some convertible bonds such as Yanggu, Jingzhuang, and Xuerong had relatively large increases, and bonds like Zhongqi, Hongqiang, and Xuerong were more actively traded [30]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Premium Rate and Trading Volume - Last week, the performance of convertible bonds was relatively good. The CSI Convertible Bond Index only declined by 0.11%, the parity center decreased by 0.4% to 94.2 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 0.8% to 28.5%. The current valuation level of convertible bonds is relatively reasonable, and it is difficult for the valuation to decline significantly due to the decreasing number of existing bonds and insufficient new supply [32]. - The daily average trading volume decreased significantly [5][11].