Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-27 02:17Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - The recent passage of the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" in the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to significantly impact the new energy sector, particularly electric vehicles and solar storage, with stricter requirements for "foreign restricted entities" [4]. - The electric vehicle market is projected to face short-term demand challenges due to the cancellation of a $7,500 subsidy by the end of 2025, while the domestic lithium battery industry maintains a comparative advantage [4]. - The report highlights that the new bill introduces a transition period of 1-2 years for compliance with the "foreign restricted entity" requirements, which may lead to a rush in installations in the short term [4]. Summary by Sections Electric Vehicles - The cancellation of the $7,500 subsidy by the end of 2025 is expected to negatively affect U.S. electric vehicle demand in the short term, but the impact on Chinese companies is limited due to their low export ratio to the U.S. [4]. - The report notes that the U.S. electric vehicle penetration rate is currently low at 9.8%, with projected sales of 1.56 million units in 2024 [4]. Solar Storage - The report discusses the gradual reduction of ITC and PTC subsidies, with the new bill implementing a phased reduction starting in 2029 [4]. - The ITC subsidy is set to decrease from 30% to 0% by 2032, while the PTC subsidy will also see significant reductions [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes for 2025: 1. True Growth: Companies like CATL, EVE Energy, and LONGi Green Energy [4]. 2. Cycle Recovery: Companies such as Hunan Youneng and Fulin Precision [4]. 3. New Technologies: Firms like Xiamen Tungsten and Rongbai Technology [4]. 4. Supply-side Reform: Companies including Tongwei and GCL-Poly [4]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided for key companies in the power equipment sector, detailing their market capitalization, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025-2027 [5].