长江期货市场交易指引-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Stock Index: Defensive Observation [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the short - term, expected to fluctuate upwards [1][5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Temporarily Observation, expected to fluctuate [7] - Iron Ore: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Expected to fluctuate [1][9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Cautious trading within a range [1][12] - Aluminum: Observation [1][13] - Nickel: Observation or shorting on rallies [1][15] - Tin: Trading within a range [1][17] - Gold: Building long positions on dips after full price corrections [1][19] - Silver: Trading within a range [1][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 5000 level pressure [1][21] - Soda Ash: Observation, expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33] - Caustic Soda: Expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focus on the 2550 level pressure [1][23] - Rubber: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 15300 level pressure [1][25] - Urea: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][28] - Methanol: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 2200 - 2380 [1][29] - Plastic: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 6950 - 7350 [1][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Expected to rebound with fluctuations [1][35] - Apple: Expected to fluctuate [1][35] - PTA: Trading within the range of 4650 - 4900 [1][36] Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][39] - Eggs: Shorting on rallies [1][40] - Corn: Trading within the range of 2300 - 2360, long on dips at the lower end of the range [1][41] - Soybean Meal: Short - term trading within the range of 2860 - 3000, long on dips after mid - June [1][43] - Oils and Fats: Shorting on rallies with caution [1][43] 2. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products. It analyzes the impact of multiple factors such as macro - economy, policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade on different futures markets. For most products, the market shows a trend of fluctuation, and the investment strategies mainly include observation, trading within a range, and short - term or long - term trading based on price levels and market trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - Stock Index: Due to factors like domestic market rotation, weak main - line driving force, and insufficient trading volume, the stock index may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a defensive observation stance [5]. - Treasury Bonds: After the previous negative factors reached a peak, the bond market began to recover. Although investors are still cautious, it is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [5]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: With falling apparent demand, rising production, and slowing inventory depletion, and considering low valuation and weakening demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - Iron Ore: Affected by macro - sentiment and coal price decline, although there are factors such as potential production increase of Australian mines and decreasing inventory, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [7][8]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Both coking coal and coke face supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal is affected by production restrictions, inventory accumulation, and weak demand; coke is affected by reduced demand from steel mills and price cuts. They are expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Despite weakening support from fundamentals, the copper price is still expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to factors such as mine - end interference, supply - demand situation, and inventory levels. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [12]. - Aluminum: With the change in the situation of Guinea's mining licenses, the price of alumina has risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand may weaken. It is recommended to observe [13][14]. - Nickel: Although the cost is firm, there is a long - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15][16]. - Tin: With factors such as changes in production and consumption, and the impact of tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, Fed policies, and inflation data, the prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high inventory, weak demand, and the impact of tariffs, although the short - term tariff situation has improved, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to macro - news [21][22]. - Caustic Soda: In June, there may be a situation of weak supply and demand. The medium - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [25]. - Rubber: With slow raw material supply increase in the short - term and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - Urea: With high supply, weak agricultural and industrial demand, and increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [28]. - Methanol: With relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as macro - changes and device maintenance [29][30]. - Plastic: With reduced supply due to maintenance and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and other factors [31][32]. - Soda Ash: Although the spot price is firm, the futures price is under pressure due to insufficient expected maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the cotton price is expected to rebound with fluctuations [35]. - Apple: With stable market transactions and clear fruit - setting and bagging situations, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [35][36]. - PTA: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of supply - demand fundamentals, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36][37]. Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: In the short - term, due to the game between supply and demand, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to the increase in supply, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies at resistance levels [39]. - Eggs: In the short - term, the egg price is supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the supply is large, and the price is under pressure. In different periods, different investment strategies are recommended [40]. - Corn: In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced grassroots grain sources. In the long - term, although the supply - demand is tightening, the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips [41]. - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, due to factors such as sufficient supply, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to cost increase and weather factors, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips after mid - June [43]. - Oils and Fats: In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate due to the game of multiple factors. In the long - term, it is expected to decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies with caution [43][48].