中泰期货晨会纪要-20250527

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - For stock index futures, consider taking phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling small and medium - cap indices on rallies. - For treasury bond futures, focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steepening of the yield curve. - For container shipping on the European route, the previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. - For various commodities, different views and strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals, such as trading strategies for eggs, apples, etc. [10][11][12] Summary by Category Macro News - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics", aiming to improve the enterprise income distribution system. - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The Chinese Ministry of Finance believes it reflects the positive prospects of the Chinese economy. - Central Huijin emphasized fulfilling its responsibilities in state - owned financial capital management. - Goldman Sachs is overweight on Chinese stocks, expecting moderate improvement in corporate earnings and increased foreign capital inflows. - Trump commented on US manufacturing and threatened to withdraw $3 billion in funding from Harvard. - The Minneapolis Fed President said the Fed may wait for clearer situations due to multiple uncertainties. - Nomura warned that multiple factors may trigger the "Bond Vigilantes" action. - OPEC+ advanced its July production meeting to May 31 and may plan a third consecutive monthly increase of 411,000 barrels per day. [7][8][9] Futures Strategies Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations. Short - sell small and medium - cap indices on rallies. The market may enter a short - term consolidation phase. [10] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steepening of the yield curve. Bond supply pressure has a significant impact on the capital market, and the previous policies showed limited support for the domestic economic downturn. [11] Commodity Markets Container Shipping on the European Route - The previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. The 08 contract may consolidate in the short - term and face uncertainties in the long - term. [12] Cotton - The Sino - US tariff friction has eased, which is beneficial for cotton prices in the short - term, but there are still pressures. Technically, the price is under the 60 - day moving average. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade situation and the downstream demand. [13][14][15] Sugar - The sugar market has sufficient short - term supply, but there are uncertainties in making up the production - demand gap. The international market expects an oversupply, while the domestic market may show a resistant and range - bound trend. [15][16][18] Eggs - Before the Dragon Boat Festival, consumption may improve, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound. However, the egg price may face greater pressure in June. It is recommended to short the 07 contract on rallies. [19] Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The market is in a volatile state due to inconsistent views on the apple production situation in different regions. [19][20] Red Dates - Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production areas. The market may be range - bound at the bottom due to the supply - demand pattern. [20][22] Pigs - The spot price is weak. With the increase in supply and the seasonal weakening of demand, it is recommended to short the near - month contracts. [23] Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the global economic outlook is weak. The oil price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the long - term, with a possibility of a short - term rebound. [24] Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price will follow the crude oil price. The market has no main contradiction, and the demand is affected by multiple factors. [25] Plastics - Consider a long - position allocation for L and PP after the price decline, and also consider a long - position for the 9 - 1 month spread. [26][27] Methanol - Do not chase short positions in the short - term. Short the methanol after a rebound as the supply pressure is high. [27] Caustic Soda - The futures price may be strong in the context of strong spot prices. Pay attention to the resumption of production of alumina enterprises. [28] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. Glass may be volatile in the short - term, and the price is likely to fall without significant improvement in demand. [29][30][31] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to follow the oil price and move towards 3400 after the basis convergence. [31] Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to short on rallies as the supply of PX and PTA is expected to increase. [30] Pulp - Pay attention to macro - sentiment. The market may be range - bound in the short - term, with a possibility of a rebound. Consider options strategies. [31] Logs - The market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Pay attention to downstream construction and port inventory. [31] Urea - The urea production is at a historical high. The market may be weak in the short - term and may turn strong if there are export - related positive factors. [30][31] Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to be range - bound, and short - term range trading can be considered. Alumina is expected to reach a balance in June, and it is recommended to wait and see. [32] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Maintain a short - position view on industrial silicon before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, there is a risk of price decline due to increased supply and weak demand. [32] Steel and Iron Ore - The steel market has strong supply and weak demand. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and weak in the long - term. [33] Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, go long on dips; for ferromanganese, hold short positions. Consider a long - ferrosilicon and short - ferromanganese arbitrage. [33][34]